Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 11/10, 01:00

Prediction: Venados FC vs Universidad Guadalajara

Team pages: Venados FC · Universidad Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Venados FC1.78

Universidad Guadalajara1.64

1X2

40% 25% 34%

Venados FC Draw Universidad Guadalajara

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Venados FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLWLWW

Universidad Guadalajara 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Venados FC 2–1–3 Universidad Guadalajara (6 last)

Venados FC2-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara1-0Venados FC
Universidad Guadalajara3-1Venados FC
Venados FC3-0Universidad Guadalajara
Venados FC1-1Universidad Guadalajara
Universidad Guadalajara4-1Venados FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Venados FC 1520 · Universidad Guadalajara 1557

	Venados FC	Draw	Universidad Guadalajara
Our model	41%	24%	35%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Universidad Guadalajara: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Venados FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.1	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.94
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
22:55 +4’	2.30	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:14 +4’	1.89	3.94	3.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Venados FC 2–1–3 Universidad Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Universidad Guadalajara
02/11/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	1-0 HT 0-0	Venados FC
19/04/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	3-1 HT 1-1	Venados FC
02/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Universidad Guadalajara
25/01/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Venados FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Universidad Guadalajara
18/08/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Universidad Guadalajara	4-1 HT 2-0	Venados FC

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	11	7	2	2	27	16	23
2	Atletico Morelia	11	7	1	3	21	12	22
3	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	23	19	17
7	Cancun FC	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11	11	17
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	20	20	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	11	3	3	5	19	23	12
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8	22	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Venados FC	Universidad Guadalajara
Club Atletico La Paz	2-1 W	2-2 D
Atletico Morelia	2-1 W	0-2 L
Piratas	1-2 L	1-1 D
Jaiba Brava	3-4 L	4-0 W
Tlaxcala FC	1-3 L	4-2 W
Tapatio	3-2 W	3-1 W
Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Universidad Guadalajara (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Venados FC

DWLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
19/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
13/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	5-0	3	6	W
06/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-3	3-4	10	9	L
30/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-3	6	10	L
21/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	4-2	6	2	W
15/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-5	3	6	L
09/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-2	8	5	W
01/08	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	6	5	D

Universidad Guadalajara

WWLWWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-1	20	5	W
20/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
13/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	4	8	D
07/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
30/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
23/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	2-1	0	4	W
16/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-0	4-0	3	8	W
07/08	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-2	1-3	8	4	L
02/08	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	7	W
26/07	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	4-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Venados FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Venados FC win (40%). Probabilities: Venados FC 40%, draw 25%, Universidad Guadalajara 34%.

How many goals are expected in Venados FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Venados FC 1.78 · Universidad Guadalajara 1.64), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Venados FC vs Universidad Guadalajara?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.