Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 14/10, 01:00
Prediction: Tapatio vs Tepatitlan FC
Team pages: Tapatio · Tepatitlan FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.88Total
Tapatio2.36
Tepatitlan FC1.52
1X2
Tapatio
Draw
Tepatitlan FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Tapatio
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Tepatitlan FC
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tapatio
1–2–3
Tepatitlan FC
(6 last)
- Tepatitlan FC2-0Tapatio
- Tapatio1-3Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC1-0Tapatio
- Tapatio1-1Tepatitlan FC
- Tepatitlan FC1-1Tapatio
- Tapatio2-0Tepatitlan FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tapatio (rating 1484 vs 1413).
- H2H favours Tepatitlan FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tapatio | Tepatitlan FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 2.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tapatio 1–2–3 Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tapatio |
| 18/08/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 15/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
| 11/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
| 08/11/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tepatitlan FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tapatio |
| 01/09/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion | Tapatio | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tepatitlan FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Universidad Guadalajara | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Club Atletico La Paz | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Atletico Morelia | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 22 | 20 |
| 5 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 18 |
| 6 | Cancun FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Piratas | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 8 | Alacranes de Durango | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 18 |
| 9 | Correcaminos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 16 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 15 |
| 11 | Tapatio | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 14 |
| 12 | Dorados | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 13 |
| 13 | Oaxaca | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 13 |
| 14 | Jaiba Brava | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 11 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan FC | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tapatio | Tepatitlan FC |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico La Paz | 2-4 L | 0-5 L |
| Tlaxcala FC | 4-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Dorados | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Oaxaca | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Correcaminos | 3-2 W | 1-3 L |
| Venados FC | 2-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Jaiba Brava | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Tapatio (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tapatio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 04/10 | Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 07/09 | Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 15/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
Tepatitlan FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-1 | 0-5 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 04/09 | Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-3 | 1-4 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-6 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 14/08 | Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 25/07 | Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tapatio vs Tepatitlan FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tapatio win (56%). Probabilities: Tapatio 56%, draw 21%, Tepatitlan FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Tapatio vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model expects 3.88 goals (Tapatio 2.36 · Tepatitlan FC 1.52), with a 60% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Tapatio vs Tepatitlan FC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.