Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 11/10, 03:00

Prediction: Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Team pages: Dorados · Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Dorados1.73

Cruz Azul Hidalgo1.4

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Dorados Draw Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorados 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWWDDL

Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLDLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorados 1486 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1450

	Dorados	Draw	Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorados	Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.97
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 4.06 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:31 +12’	2.10	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:20 +83’	1.75	3.97	4.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	11	7	2	2	27	16	23
2	Atletico Morelia	11	7	1	3	21	12	22
3	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	23	19	17
7	Cancun FC	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11	11	17
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	20	20	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	11	3	3	5	19	23	12
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8	22	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorados	Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Alacranes de Durango	0-1 L	0-2 L
Jaiba Brava	1-1 D	0-3 L
Cancun FC	1-1 D	0-6 L
Tepatitlan FC	4-1 W	6-0 W
Atletico Morelia	0-1 L	1-2 L
Venados FC	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Dorados (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorados

WDDLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
20/09	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
16/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/09	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	3-1	13	8	W
04/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	3-1	4-1	1	8	W
29/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
21/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-2	2-4	2	2	L
16/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-2	4	5	D
07/08	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
31/07	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	0	5	W

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

DLLDWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
26/09	Universidad Guadalajara Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
18/09	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-2	4	10	L
11/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
06/09	Cancun FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-6	0	5	L
29/08	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	5	5	W
22/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-1	14	8	D
15/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
09/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	0-3	8	7	L
01/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorados win (44%). Probabilities: Dorados 44%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul Hidalgo 30%.

How many goals are expected in Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Dorados 1.73 · Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1.4), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.