Football · Mexico Liga de Expansion · 11/10, 03:00

Prediction: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancun FC

Team pages: Mineros de Zacatecas · Cancun FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Mineros de Zacatecas1.84

Cancun FC1.41

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Mineros de Zacatecas Draw Cancun FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Mineros de Zacatecas 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLLWWL

Cancun FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDDWLW

Head-to-head

Mineros de Zacatecas 0–3–3 Cancun FC (6 last)

Cancun FC4-1Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas0-0Cancun FC
Mineros de Zacatecas1-1Cancun FC
Cancun FC0-0Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas0-2Cancun FC
Cancun FC3-2Mineros de Zacatecas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mineros de Zacatecas 1503 · Cancun FC 1524

	Mineros de Zacatecas	Draw	Cancun FC
Our model	47%	25%	29%
Market	46%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cancun FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mineros de Zacatecas	Cancun FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 1	5.2 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.65 ★
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:42 +1’	2.05	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:56 +407’	2.03	3.65	3.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mineros de Zacatecas 0–3–3 Cancun FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	4-1 HT 2-1	Mineros de Zacatecas
06/09/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-0 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
02/02/25 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	1-1 HT 0-0	Cancun FC
18/08/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mineros de Zacatecas
21/02/24 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Mineros de Zacatecas	0-2 HT 0-1	Cancun FC
27/11/23 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Cancun FC	3-2 HT 3-1	Mineros de Zacatecas

Standings · Mexico Liga de Expansion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Universidad Guadalajara	11	7	2	2	27	16	23
2	Atletico Morelia	11	7	1	3	21	12	22
3	Club Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24	13	20
4	Venados FC	11	6	1	4	26	21	19
5	Piratas	11	5	3	3	16	10	18
6	Mineros de Zacatecas	11	5	2	4	23	19	17
7	Cancun FC	11	5	2	4	19	15	17
8	Alacranes de Durango	11	5	2	4	11	11	17
9	Correcaminos	11	4	4	3	19	18	16
10	Tapatio	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Dorados	11	3	4	4	20	20	13
12	Tlaxcala FC	11	3	3	5	19	23	12
13	Jaiba Brava	11	3	2	6	12	19	11
14	Oaxaca	11	3	1	7	8	22	10
15	Cruz Azul Hidalgo	11	1	5	5	11	18	8
16	Tepatitlan FC	10	2	0	8	8	29	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mineros de Zacatecas	Cancun FC
Alacranes de Durango	2-4 L	2-0 W
Piratas	3-0 W	1-0 W
Atletico Morelia	0-1 L	1-4 L
Club Atletico La Paz	0-3 L	1-2 L
Tapatio	2-4 L	1-0 W
Dorados	2-2 D	1-1 D
Tlaxcala FC	3-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mineros de Zacatecas

WDWLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	4	6	L
25/09	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
19/09	Tepatitlan FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
13/09	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	0-1	4	10	L
05/09	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
30/08	Jaiba Brava Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
24/08	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Venados FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-1	5-1	5	6	W
07/08	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	2-2	1	6	D
01/08	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	3-1	3	7	W

Cancun FC

LWWLWDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Tapatio Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Tlaxcala FC Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
20/09	Oaxaca Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-0	3-0	2	8	W
16/09	Dorados Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
12/09	Correcaminos Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/09	Cruz Azul Hidalgo Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	6-0	4	5	W
28/08	Club Atletico La Paz Mexico Liga de Expansion	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
23/08	Piratas Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
16/08	Alacranes de Durango Mexico Liga de Expansion	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
09/08	Atletico Morelia Mexico Liga de Expansion	1-1	1-4	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancun FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mineros de Zacatecas win (46%). Probabilities: Mineros de Zacatecas 46%, draw 26%, Cancun FC 28%.

How many goals are expected in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancun FC?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Mineros de Zacatecas 1.84 · Cancun FC 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancun FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.