Football · England League 2 · 27/10, 20:45
Prediction: Barnet vs York
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Barnet1.75
York1.32
1X2
Barnet
Draw
York
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Barnet
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
York
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Barnet
3–3
York
(6 last)
- Barnet3-1York
- York3-1Barnet
- Barnet2-0York
- York2-4Barnet
- York1-0Barnet
- Barnet0-5York
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Barnet 1540 · York 1511
| Barnet | Draw | York | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Barnet | York | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.2 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.6 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Barnet 3–0–3 York
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/25 England National League | Barnet | 3-1 HT 1-0 | York |
| 22/10/24 England National League | York | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Barnet |
| 24/02/24 England National League | Barnet | 2-0 HT 1-0 | York |
| 26/09/23 England National League | York | 2-4 HT 1-1 | Barnet |
| 03/04/23 England National League | York | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Barnet |
| 01/10/22 England National League | Barnet | 0-5 HT 0-2 | York |
Standings · England League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Barnet | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Cheltenham | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 21 |
| 4 | Crewe | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 21 |
| 5 | York | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Walsall | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 19 |
| 8 | Exeter | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Accrington Stanley | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 18 |
| 10 | Shrewsbury | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 18 |
| 11 | Grimsby | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 17 |
| 12 | Gillingham | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| 14 | Swindon | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 16 | Newport County | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| 17 | Rochdale | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| 19 | Northampton | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 20 | Oldham | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| 21 | Colchester | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 12 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 12 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Barnet | York |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon | 1-3 L | 4-0 W |
| Accrington Stanley | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Chesterfield | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| Exeter | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cheltenham | 2-2 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Barnet (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Barnet
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Oldham England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 20/10 | Swindon England League 2 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 14 | 1 | L |
| 17/10 | Tranmere England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Bristol Rovers England League 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Fleetwood Town England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 01/09 | Exeter England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Shrewsbury England League 2 |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
York
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Port Vale England League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 20/10 | Accrington Stanley England League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 17/10 | Newport County England League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Northampton England League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Gillingham England League 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/09 | Chesterfield England League 2 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Swindon England League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Crewe England League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 01/09 | Cheltenham England League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Exeter England League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Barnet vs York?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Barnet win (47%). Probabilities: Barnet 47%, draw 25%, York 28%.
How many goals are expected in Barnet vs York?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Barnet 1.75 · York 1.32), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Barnet vs York?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.