Football · England League 2 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham

Team pages: Shrewsbury · Gillingham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Shrewsbury1.74

Gillingham1.21

1X2

48% 26% 25%

Shrewsbury Draw Gillingham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Shrewsbury 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDDWLWWD

Gillingham 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLDWLDL

Head-to-head

Shrewsbury 1–4–1 Gillingham (6 last)

Gillingham1-0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury3-3Gillingham
Gillingham0-0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury2-1Gillingham
Gillingham0-0Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury1-1Gillingham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shrewsbury 1479 · Gillingham 1503

	Shrewsbury	Draw	Gillingham
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shrewsbury	Gillingham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Pinn 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +5’	1.91	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +359’	1.93	3.37	3.96
12:52 +18’	1.95▲	3.36▼	3.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shrewsbury 1–4–1 Gillingham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 England League 2	Gillingham	1-0 HT 0-0	Shrewsbury
29/11/25 England League 2	Shrewsbury	3-3 HT 3-1	Gillingham
25/01/22 England League 1	Gillingham	0-0 HT 0-0	Shrewsbury
28/08/21 England League 1	Shrewsbury	2-1 HT 0-1	Gillingham
10/04/21 England League 1	Gillingham	0-0 HT 0-0	Shrewsbury
03/10/20 England League 1	Shrewsbury	1-1 HT 1-0	Gillingham

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	19	12	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	24	16	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	21	13	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	16	7	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	23	17	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington Stanley	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	16	16	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shrewsbury	Gillingham
Rotherham	3-3 D	4-1 W
Bristol Rovers	1-0 W	3-0 W
Grimsby	2-1 W	1-4 L
Rochdale	0-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gillingham (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shrewsbury

LLWDDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/10	Crawley Town England League 2	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
17/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
10/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
26/09	Colchester England League 2	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
12/09	Northampton England League 2	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
01/09	Rochdale England League 2	0-2	0-3	3	5	L

Gillingham

DWWWLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Grimsby England League 2	1-1	1-4	4	7	L
20/10	Port Vale England League 2	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
17/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
10/10	Rotherham England League 2	1-1	4-1	2	5	W
03/10	Newport County England League 2	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
26/09	York England League 2	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
19/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	3-0	1	3	W
12/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
05/09	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
01/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-1	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shrewsbury win (48%). Probabilities: Shrewsbury 48%, draw 26%, Gillingham 25%.

How many goals are expected in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Shrewsbury 1.74 · Gillingham 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Gillingham?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.