Football · England League 2 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Swindon vs Rotherham

Team pages: Swindon · Rotherham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Swindon1.47

Rotherham1.26

1X2

41% 27% 31%

Swindon Draw Rotherham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Swindon 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLDWD

Rotherham 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLLLDD

Head-to-head

Swindon 0–1–0 Rotherham (1 last)

Rotherham1-1Swindon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Swindon 1462 · Rotherham 1446

	Swindon	Draw	Rotherham
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Swindon	Rotherham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.42 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.59
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +16’	2.20	3.40	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:26 +256’	2.41	3.63	2.69
10:29 +60’	2.42▲	3.59▼	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Swindon 0–1–0 Rotherham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/25 England FA Cup	Rotherham	1-1 HT 1-0	Swindon

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	19	12	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	24	16	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	21	13	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	16	7	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	23	17	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington Stanley	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	16	16	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Swindon	Rotherham
Bristol Rovers	0-0 D	0-1 L
Crewe	0-1 L	1-1 D
Salford City	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rotherham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Swindon

WWLLDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
20/10	Barnet England League 2	3-0	3-1	0	1	W
17/10	Walsall England League 2	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
10/10	Crewe England League 2	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	Rochdale England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
26/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
19/09	Salford City England League 2	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	York England League 2	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
05/09	Colchester England League 2	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
01/09	Port Vale England League 2	1-1	3-1	10	2	W

Rotherham

DLDWDLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
20/10	Newport County England League 2	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	Fleetwood Town England League 2	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
10/10	Gillingham England League 2	1-1	1-4	2	5	L
03/10	Exeter England League 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/09	Crewe England League 2	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
19/09	Northampton England League 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
12/09	Salford City England League 2	2-2	3-3	4	6	D
05/09	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
01/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	2-2	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Swindon vs Rotherham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Swindon win (41%). Probabilities: Swindon 41%, draw 27%, Rotherham 31%.

How many goals are expected in Swindon vs Rotherham?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Swindon 1.47 · Rotherham 1.26), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Swindon vs Rotherham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.