Football · England League 2 · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Oldham vs Crawley Town

Team pages: Oldham · Crawley Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Oldham1.98

Crawley Town1.03

1X2

58% 23% 18%

Oldham Draw Crawley Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Oldham 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLDWLD

Crawley Town 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDLLD

Head-to-head

Oldham 2–3–1 Crawley Town (6 last)

Oldham2-0Crawley Town
Crawley Town2-2Oldham
Oldham3-3Crawley Town
Crawley Town2-2Oldham
Crawley Town1-4Oldham
Oldham2-3Crawley Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oldham 1492 · Crawley Town 1430

	Oldham	Draw	Crawley Town
Our model	58%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oldham (rating 1492 vs 1430).
H2H favours Oldham: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oldham	Crawley Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 6	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.68 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.19
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +12’	1.57	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +356’	1.68	4.19	4.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Oldham 2–3–1 Crawley Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England League 2	Oldham	2-0 HT 1-0	Crawley Town
13/12/25 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-2 HT 1-0	Oldham
07/05/22 England League 2	Oldham	3-3 HT 2-2	Crawley Town
01/03/22 England League 2	Crawley Town	2-2 HT 0-0	Oldham
05/04/21 England League 2	Crawley Town	1-4 HT 0-2	Oldham
26/09/20 England League 2	Oldham	2-3 HT 1-2	Crawley Town

Standings · England League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Salford City	12	8	1	3	19	12	25
2	Barnet	11	6	4	1	24	16	22
3	Cheltenham	13	6	3	4	22	22	21
4	Crewe	13	5	6	2	16	16	21
5	York	12	5	5	2	21	13	20
6	Walsall	11	4	7	0	16	7	19
7	Chesterfield	13	5	4	4	23	17	19
8	Exeter	13	5	4	4	10	7	19
9	Accrington Stanley	13	4	6	3	22	16	18
10	Shrewsbury	13	5	3	5	16	20	18
11	Grimsby	13	4	5	4	19	16	17
12	Gillingham	13	4	5	4	18	18	17
13	Tranmere	13	3	7	3	16	16	16
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13	16	16
15	Bristol Rovers	13	5	1	7	16	20	16
16	Newport County	13	3	6	4	16	16	15
17	Rochdale	13	4	3	6	15	22	15
18	Fleetwood Town	13	3	5	5	15	17	14
19	Northampton	11	3	4	4	8	8	13
20	Oldham	12	3	3	6	14	18	12
21	Colchester	12	2	6	4	11	16	12
22	Rotherham	13	2	6	5	17	23	12
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6	12	12
24	Crawley Town	11	1	3	7	12	21	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Oldham	Crawley Town
Cheltenham	4-1 W	1-3 L
Accrington Stanley	0-0 D	2-3 L
Salford City	1-4 L	1-2 L
Rochdale	0-2 L	2-1 W
Chesterfield	1-2 L	2-2 D
Tranmere	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Crawley Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Oldham

WDLLLLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Barnet England League 2	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
20/10	Walsall England League 2	0-2	0-3	1	7	L
17/10	Cheltenham England League 2	3-1	4-1	4	2	W
10/10	Accrington Stanley England League 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
26/09	Salford City England League 2	1-2	1-4	11	2	L
19/09	Rochdale England League 2	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
12/09	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	1-2	1	5	L
05/09	Tranmere England League 2	0-1	0-2	10	5	L
01/09	Fleetwood Town England League 2	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
29/08	Swindon England League 2	1-0	3-0	14	3	W

Crawley Town

WLDLLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tranmere England League 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
20/10	Shrewsbury England League 2	1-0	2-3	4	4	L
17/10	Salford City England League 2	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
10/10	Chesterfield England League 2	0-1	2-2	1	7	D
19/09	Grimsby England League 2	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
12/09	Cheltenham England League 2	1-2	1-3	8	6	L
05/09	Accrington Stanley England League 2	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
01/09	Northampton England League 2	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
29/08	Bristol Rovers England League 2	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
22/08	Rochdale England League 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oldham vs Crawley Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oldham win (58%). Probabilities: Oldham 58%, draw 23%, Crawley Town 18%.

How many goals are expected in Oldham vs Crawley Town?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Oldham 1.98 · Crawley Town 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Oldham vs Crawley Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.