Football · USA MLS · 01/10, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

New York Red Bulls1.24

St. Louis City SC1.84

1X2

26% 23% 51%

New York Red Bulls Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLDLWW

St. Louis City SC 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWDWW

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 1–1–1 St. Louis City SC (3 last)

St. Louis City SC1-3New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City SC1-0New York Red Bulls
St. Louis City SC2-2New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1489 · St. Louis City SC 1580

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	25%	25%	50%
Market	26%	22%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1489 vs 1580).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.2	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.33

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.85 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:41 +3’	3.50	4.33	1.85
23:24 +4’	3.60▲	4.33	1.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 1–1–1 St. Louis City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 America Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	1-3	New York Red Bulls
29/01/25 World Club Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	1-0	New York Red Bulls
10/02/24 World Club Friendlies	St. Louis City SC	2-2	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	25	15	4	6	56	23	49
2	Houston Dynamo	26	13	5	8	34	30	44
3	St. Louis City SC	26	12	8	6	45	36	44
4	FC Dallas	26	12	8	6	49	42	44
5	San Jose Earthquakes	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Los Angeles FC	27	11	8	8	43	29	41
7	Colorado Rapids	26	11	3	12	36	35	36
8	LA Galaxy	27	8	9	10	34	42	33
9	Portland Timbers	26	9	5	12	47	48	32
10	Seattle Sounders	25	8	8	9	30	33	32
11	San Diego FC	26	8	7	11	44	44	31
12	Austin FC	26	7	9	10	32	44	30
13	Real Salt Lake	26	8	5	13	37	44	29
14	Minnesota United	26	7	8	11	39	46	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	25	5	3	17	29	63	18

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Red Bulls

LWLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
13/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
06/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
30/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	5	L

St. Louis City SC

WDWDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-1	8	4	W
13/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	3-1	4-2	6	3	W
10/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
06/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-1	3-1	2	7	W
31/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
23/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	7	W
20/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St. Louis City SC win (51%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 26%, draw 23%, St. Louis City SC 51%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.08 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.24 · St. Louis City SC 1.84), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.