Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Atlanta United · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Atlanta United1.72

FC Cincinnati1.6

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Atlanta United Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLDWD

FC Cincinnati 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 1–2–3 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati2-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United4-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2-2Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United1-2FC Cincinnati

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1499 · FC Cincinnati 1479

	Atlanta United	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.80

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.82
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.82 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:08 +17’	2.30	3.80	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +64’	2.30	3.82	2.82

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 1–2–3 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
26/05/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	4-2 HT 2-0	FC Cincinnati
22/03/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-2 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
12/02/25 World Club Friendlies	Atlanta United	2-2	FC Cincinnati
16/05/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	1-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
21/04/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	FC Cincinnati
New York City FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Orlando City SC	2-3 L	1-1 D
Charlotte FC	0-2 L	3-3 D
Philadelphia Union	2-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cincinnati (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

LWWWLDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L

FC Cincinnati

LWDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
20/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	2-2	7	0	D
13/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	12	3	D
10/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
30/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	0-4	4	5	L
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (40%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 40%, draw 25%, FC Cincinnati 35%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Atlanta United 1.72 · FC Cincinnati 1.6), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.