Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders

Team pages: New England Revolution · Seattle Sounders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

New England Revolution1.88

Seattle Sounders1.29

1X2

50% 25% 25%

New England Revolution Draw Seattle Sounders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New England Revolution 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWWWL

Seattle Sounders 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDDWWW

Head-to-head

New England Revolution 1–3–2 Seattle Sounders (6 last)

Seattle Sounders2-0New England Revolution
Seattle Sounders3-3New England Revolution
New England Revolution0-0Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders3-3New England Revolution
New England Revolution2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders3-0New England Revolution

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New England Revolution 1519 · Seattle Sounders 1513

	New England Revolution	Draw	Seattle Sounders
Our model	50%	25%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New England Revolution	Seattle Sounders
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.75

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.89
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.91 ★
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +2’	1.85	3.75	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +63’	1.89	3.91	3.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 1–3–2 Seattle Sounders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/07/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-0 HT 1-0	New England Revolution
10/08/19 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	3-3 HT 1-2	New England Revolution
08/07/18 USA MLS	New England Revolution	0-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
30/04/17 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	3-3 HT 0-2	New England Revolution
29/05/16 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-1 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders
09/03/15 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	3-0 HT 2-0	New England Revolution

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New England Revolution	Seattle Sounders
Real Salt Lake	0-3 L	2-0 W
Chicago Fire	2-1 W	2-2 D
LA Galaxy	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New England Revolution

LLWDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	0-3	11	4	L
20/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	10	4	W
13/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	4	W
10/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
06/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-2	1-2	3	5	L
30/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	5	2	W
23/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
20/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	1	L

Seattle Sounders

LLDDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	2-1	11	2	W
27/09	Minnesota United USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
24/09	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
20/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	1	D
13/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
06/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New England Revolution win (50%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 50%, draw 25%, Seattle Sounders 25%.

How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders?

The model expects 3.17 goals (New England Revolution 1.88 · Seattle Sounders 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.