Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Philadelphia Union2.61

Real Salt Lake1.32

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Philadelphia Union Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDWWWWWW

Real Salt Lake 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Philadelphia Union1-2Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake4-0Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union4-1Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake1-0Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-2Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-3Philadelphia Union

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1591 · Real Salt Lake 1437

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1591 vs 1437).
H2H favours Real Salt Lake: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.1	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.4	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.45 → 1.45	Bet365 1.45
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.22 ★
2	5.75 → 5.75	Pinn 6.16

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:01 +23’	1.45	4.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +62’	1.42	5.22	6.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 1–1–4 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 0-1	Real Salt Lake
14/07/19 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	4-0 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
20/05/18 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	4-1 HT 2-0	Real Salt Lake
28/05/17 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	1-0 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
01/08/16 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake
15/03/15 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-3 HT 1-2	Philadelphia Union

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	15	5	6	59	26	50
2	St. Louis City SC	27	13	8	6	48	36	47
3	FC Dallas	27	13	8	6	50	42	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	13	6	8	49	39	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	13	5	9	34	32	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	11	8	9	43	30	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	10	8	9	35	35	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	11	3	13	38	38	36
9	LA Galaxy	28	9	9	10	37	44	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	9	5	13	48	51	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	9	5	13	40	44	32
12	San Diego FC	27	8	8	11	47	47	32
13	Austin FC	27	7	10	10	35	47	31
14	Minnesota United	27	7	8	12	40	49	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	6	3	18	32	65	21

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	Real Salt Lake
Orlando City SC	4-2 W	1-2 L
New York City FC	3-2 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Philadelphia Union

WWDDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	7	6	W
20/09	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-3	4-3	4	7	W
14/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	5-0	4	4	W
10/09	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-0	5-0	7	3	W
06/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	8	W
30/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W

Real Salt Lake

DLLLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
24/09	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
20/09	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	0-3	5	7	L
13/09	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
10/09	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (64%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 64%, draw 20%, Real Salt Lake 16%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Philadelphia Union 2.61 · Real Salt Lake 1.32), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.