Football · USA MLS · 11/10, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew

Team pages: Orlando City SC · Columbus Crew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Orlando City SC1.89

Columbus Crew1.47

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Orlando City SC Draw Columbus Crew

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Columbus Crew 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 1–2–3 Columbus Crew (6 last)

Columbus Crew2-1Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew1-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-1Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew1-3Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew4-3Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC0-2Columbus Crew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1494 · Columbus Crew 1484

	Orlando City SC	Draw	Columbus Crew
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	46%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Columbus Crew: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	Columbus Crew
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.07 ★
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:20 +4’	2.00	3.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:21 +62’	2.05	4.07	3.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 1–2–3 Columbus Crew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/09/26 USA US Open Cup	Columbus Crew	2-1 HT 1-1	Orlando City SC
13/04/26 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	1-1 HT 0-1	Orlando City SC
05/10/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-1 HT 1-1	Columbus Crew
26/07/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	1-3 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
22/09/24 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	4-3 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
26/05/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Columbus Crew

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	27	18	6	3	55	21	60
2	New England Revolution	27	14	4	9	45	36	46
3	Inter Miami CF	27	12	10	5	64	50	46
4	Charlotte FC	27	12	7	8	47	38	43
5	Chicago Fire	26	12	6	8	46	38	42
6	Philadelphia Union	27	11	6	10	54	44	39
7	Orlando City SC	27	10	4	13	48	64	34
8	New York Red Bulls	27	9	6	12	34	51	33
9	New York City FC	27	8	9	10	41	36	33
10	FC Cincinnati	26	8	9	9	55	64	33
11	DC United	26	6	12	8	34	42	30
12	Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	39	43	29
13	Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	39	51	29
14	Atlanta United	27	7	6	14	32	45	27
15	CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	34	54	24

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	Columbus Crew
New England Revolution	2-4 L	1-3 L
New York Red Bulls	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orlando City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
20/09	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	2-4	3	4	L
13/09	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
10/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
30/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	3-3	1	4	D
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L

Columbus Crew

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-1	9	11	W
20/09	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
13/09	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
10/09	DC United USA MLS	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
06/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
30/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-2	1-3	5	2	L
23/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-1	2-3	1	2	L
20/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
16/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	13	3	L
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orlando City SC win (47%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 47%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew 29%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Orlando City SC 1.89 · Columbus Crew 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.