Football · Armenia Premier League · 23/10, 13:30

Prediction: FC Van vs Ararat Yerevan

Team pages: FC Van · Ararat Yerevan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

FC Van1.35

Ararat Yerevan1.37

1X2

36% 28% 37%

FC Van Draw Ararat Yerevan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Van 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Ararat Yerevan 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLWWDD

Head-to-head

FC Van 4–2 Ararat Yerevan (6 last)

Ararat Yerevan1-2FC Van
FC Van1-2Ararat Yerevan
Ararat Yerevan0-1FC Van
Ararat Yerevan2-1FC Van
FC Van4-0Ararat Yerevan
Ararat Yerevan0-3FC Van

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Van 1435 · Ararat Yerevan 1480

	FC Van	Draw	Ararat Yerevan
Our model	36%	28%	36%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ararat Yerevan (rating 1435 vs 1480).
H2H favours FC Van: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Van	Ararat Yerevan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.6	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.1	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 06:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.50▲	Pinn 2.52
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.39 ★
2	2.40 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.51

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:00 +4’	2.45	3.30	2.40
16:59 +5’	2.40▼	3.30	2.50▲
23:01 +1’	2.20▼	3.40▲	2.75▲
08:59 +3’	2.45▲	3.30▼	2.45▼
18:02 +3’	2.40▼	3.30	2.50▲
02:57 +5’	2.45▲	3.30	2.50
05:54 +9’	2.50▲	3.30	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +38’	2.18	3.43	2.92
07:00 +2’	2.20▲	3.41▼	2.91▼
08:25 +37’	2.41▲	3.41	2.61▼
23:16 +46’	2.42▲	3.38▼	2.62▲
02:03 +1’	2.52▲	3.39▲	2.51▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Van 4–0–2 Ararat Yerevan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Van
07/03/26 Armenia Premier League	FC Van	1-2 HT 0-0	Ararat Yerevan
09/08/25 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Van
08/05/25 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Van
05/11/24 Armenia Premier League	FC Van	4-0 HT 2-0	Ararat Yerevan
23/09/24 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Van

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	10	9	1	0	27	7	28
2	Ararat Armenia	10	7	2	1	19	9	23
3	Pyunik Yerevan	10	6	4	0	24	9	22
4	Alashkert FC	10	5	4	1	24	8	19
5	FC Urartu	11	4	4	3	19	14	16
6	Sardarapat FC	11	4	4	3	17	18	16
7	Shirak	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
8	Ararat Yerevan	10	3	2	5	9	16	11
9	BKMA FC	10	2	2	6	8	16	8
10	FC Van	10	2	1	7	8	26	7
11	Syunik	10	1	2	7	6	22	5
12	Gandzasar Kapan	10	1	0	9	9	24	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Van	Ararat Yerevan
FC Urartu	2-5 L	2-2 D
Gandzasar Kapan	2-0 W	2-0 W
FC Noah	0-2 L	0-4 L
BKMA FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Alashkert FC	0-4 L	0-3 L
Shirak	0-4 L	1-1 D
Syunik	1-1 D	1-0 W
Ararat Armenia	0-2 L	0-1 L
Pyunik Yerevan	0-3 L	0-2 L
Sardarapat FC	1-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Ararat Yerevan (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Van

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-5	4	5	L
10/10	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/09	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
11/09	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/09	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
29/08	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
20/08	Syunik Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/08	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
09/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
31/07	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	1-4	–	–	L

Ararat Yerevan

LLWLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
11/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	1	D
20/09	Syunik Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/09	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
05/09	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
30/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-4	1	5	L
21/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	1-2	11	6	L
03/08	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Van vs Ararat Yerevan?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ararat Yerevan win (37%). Probabilities: FC Van 36%, draw 28%, Ararat Yerevan 37%.

How many goals are expected in FC Van vs Ararat Yerevan?

The model expects 2.72 goals (FC Van 1.35 · Ararat Yerevan 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Van vs Ararat Yerevan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.