Football · Armenia Premier League · 01/11, 16:00
Prediction: Ararat Armenia vs Gandzasar Kapan
Team pages: Ararat Armenia · Gandzasar Kapan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Ararat Armenia2.67
Gandzasar Kapan0.67
1X2
Ararat Armenia
Draw
Gandzasar Kapan
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Ararat Armenia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Gandzasar Kapan
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ararat Armenia
6–0
Gandzasar Kapan
(6 last)
- Gandzasar Kapan3-4Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia1-0Gandzasar Kapan
- Gandzasar Kapan0-1Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia1-0Gandzasar Kapan
- Gandzasar Kapan0-4Ararat Armenia
- Ararat Armenia3-0Gandzasar Kapan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ararat Armenia 1539 · Gandzasar Kapan 1379
| Ararat Armenia | Draw | Gandzasar Kapan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ararat Armenia (rating 1539 vs 1379).
- H2H favours Ararat Armenia: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ararat Armenia | Gandzasar Kapan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ararat Armenia 6–0–0 Gandzasar Kapan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 Armenia Premier League | Gandzasar Kapan | 3-4 HT 1-2 | Ararat Armenia |
| 27/05/26 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gandzasar Kapan |
| 19/10/25 Armenia Premier League | Gandzasar Kapan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ararat Armenia |
| 05/10/25 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gandzasar Kapan |
| 25/04/25 Armenia Premier League | Gandzasar Kapan | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Ararat Armenia |
| 21/11/24 Armenia Premier League | Ararat Armenia | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Gandzasar Kapan |
Standings · Armenia Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 9 | 28 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 9 | 28 |
| 3 | Ararat Armenia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Alashkert FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 27 | 8 | 25 |
| 5 | Sardarapat FC | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 20 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 16 |
| 7 | Shirak | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Ararat Yerevan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 11 |
| 9 | FC Van | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 11 |
| 10 | BKMA FC | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | Syunik | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 8 |
| 12 | Gandzasar Kapan | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 3 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ararat Armenia | Gandzasar Kapan |
|---|---|---|
| FC Noah | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| BKMA FC | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Alashkert FC | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Shirak | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Syunik | 3-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Ararat Yerevan | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Pyunik Yerevan | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Sardarapat FC | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| FC Van | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| FC Urartu | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 7 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 9 L |
Better against common opponents: Ararat Armenia (10 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ararat Armenia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 18/10 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/10 | Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 7 | D |
| 20/09 | Shirak Armenia Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/09 | Syunik Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 31/08 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | FC Van Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 07/08 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Gandzasar Kapan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 16/10 | Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Van Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | FC Urartu Armenia Premier League |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 10 | L |
| 12/09 | Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | FC Noah Armenia Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | BKMA FC Armenia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/08 | Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 14/08 | Shirak Armenia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Syunik Armenia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ararat Armenia vs Gandzasar Kapan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ararat Armenia win (80%). Probabilities: Ararat Armenia 80%, draw 13%, Gandzasar Kapan 7%.
How many goals are expected in Ararat Armenia vs Gandzasar Kapan?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Ararat Armenia 2.67 · Gandzasar Kapan 0.67), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ararat Armenia vs Gandzasar Kapan?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.