Football · Armenia Premier League · 30/10, 12:30

Prediction: Sardarapat FC vs FC Van

Team pages: Sardarapat FC · FC Van

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Sardarapat FC1.85

FC Van1.35

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Sardarapat FC Draw FC Van

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Sardarapat FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDDLWD

FC Van 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLWLW

Head-to-head

Sardarapat FC 1–0 FC Van (1 last)

FC Van1-4Sardarapat FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sardarapat FC 1504 · FC Van 1447

	Sardarapat FC	Draw	FC Van
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sardarapat FC (rating 1504 vs 1447).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sardarapat FC	FC Van
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	0.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5	1.2 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 2.12 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:35 +4’	1.85	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:55 +44’	2.12	3.56	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sardarapat FC 1–0–0 FC Van

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/07/26 Armenia Premier League	FC Van	1-4 HT 0-2	Sardarapat FC

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	11	9	1	1	28	9	28
2	Ararat Armenia	11	8	2	1	21	10	26
3	Pyunik Yerevan	11	7	4	0	27	9	25
4	Alashkert FC	11	6	4	1	25	8	22
5	FC Urartu	11	4	4	3	19	14	16
6	Sardarapat FC	11	4	4	3	17	18	16
7	Shirak	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
8	Ararat Yerevan	11	3	2	6	10	18	11
9	FC Van	11	3	1	7	10	27	10
10	BKMA FC	11	2	2	7	9	20	8
11	Syunik	11	2	2	7	10	23	8
12	Gandzasar Kapan	11	1	0	10	9	27	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sardarapat FC	FC Van
FC Urartu	0-0 D	2-5 L
Gandzasar Kapan	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Noah	1-5 L	0-2 L
BKMA FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Alashkert FC	1-1 D	0-4 L
Pyunik Yerevan	2-4 L	0-3 L
Shirak	0-2 L	0-4 L
Syunik	3-1 W	1-1 D
Ararat Armenia	1-1 D	0-2 L
Ararat Yerevan	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Sardarapat FC (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sardarapat FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
16/10	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/10	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	3	L
19/09	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
09/09	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-4	2	1	L
06/09	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-2	11	6	L
31/08	Syunik Armenia Premier League	0-0	3-1	4	7	W
23/08	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	6	W

FC Van

LLDLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
17/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-5	4	5	L
10/10	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/09	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
11/09	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/09	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-4	2	3	L
29/08	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	4	L
20/08	Syunik Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
15/08	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
09/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sardarapat FC vs FC Van?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sardarapat FC win (48%). Probabilities: Sardarapat FC 48%, draw 25%, FC Van 27%.

How many goals are expected in Sardarapat FC vs FC Van?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Sardarapat FC 1.85 · FC Van 1.35), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sardarapat FC vs FC Van?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.