Football · Armenia Premier League · 31/10, 17:00

Prediction: Ararat Yerevan vs Alashkert FC

Team pages: Ararat Yerevan · Alashkert FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Ararat Yerevan0.86

Alashkert FC2.1

1X2

14% 21% 65%

Ararat Yerevan Draw Alashkert FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ararat Yerevan 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWDDL

Alashkert FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Ararat Yerevan 2–4 Alashkert FC (6 last)

Alashkert FC3-0Ararat Yerevan
Alashkert FC2-0Ararat Yerevan
Ararat Yerevan2-3Alashkert FC
Alashkert FC3-0Ararat Yerevan
Ararat Yerevan3-2Alashkert FC
Alashkert FC0-1Ararat Yerevan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ararat Yerevan 1441 · Alashkert FC 1590

	Ararat Yerevan	Draw	Alashkert FC
Our model	13%	22%	65%
Market	14%	21%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alashkert FC (rating 1441 vs 1590).
H2H favours Alashkert FC: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ararat Yerevan	Alashkert FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.50

X4.33

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)2.00

2 (-1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:23 +22’	6.50	4.33	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ararat Yerevan 2–0–4 Alashkert FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/26 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Ararat Yerevan
14/04/26 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Ararat Yerevan
11/04/26 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	2-3 HT 1-3	Alashkert FC
16/08/25 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Ararat Yerevan
18/04/25 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	3-2 HT 1-2	Alashkert FC
08/03/25 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Ararat Yerevan

Standings · Armenia Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	11	9	1	1	28	9	28
2	Ararat Armenia	11	8	2	1	21	10	26
3	Pyunik Yerevan	11	7	4	0	27	9	25
4	Alashkert FC	11	6	4	1	25	8	22
5	FC Urartu	11	4	4	3	19	14	16
6	Sardarapat FC	11	4	4	3	17	18	16
7	Shirak	11	3	2	6	12	14	11
8	Ararat Yerevan	11	3	2	6	10	18	11
9	FC Van	11	3	1	7	10	27	10
10	BKMA FC	11	2	2	7	9	20	8
11	Syunik	11	2	2	7	10	23	8
12	Gandzasar Kapan	11	1	0	10	9	27	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ararat Yerevan	Alashkert FC
FC Van	1-2 L	4-0 W
Shirak	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Urartu	2-2 D	1-1 D
Syunik	1-0 W	5-1 W
Gandzasar Kapan	2-0 W	3-0 W
Ararat Armenia	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Noah	0-4 L	0-1 L
Pyunik Yerevan	0-2 L	3-3 D
BKMA FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Sardarapat FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 5 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alashkert FC (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ararat Yerevan

LWLLLWWDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
11/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	1	D
20/09	Syunik Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/09	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
05/09	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
30/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-4	1	5	L
21/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
07/08	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-2	1-2	11	6	L

Alashkert FC

WLWDWDDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
16/10	Syunik Armenia Premier League	3-0	5-1	9	6	W
10/10	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
19/09	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-2	3-3	6	6	D
13/09	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
03/09	FC Van Armenia Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
28/08	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/08	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
17/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
10/08	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	2-0	3-0	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ararat Yerevan vs Alashkert FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alashkert FC win (65%). Probabilities: Ararat Yerevan 14%, draw 21%, Alashkert FC 65%.

How many goals are expected in Ararat Yerevan vs Alashkert FC?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Ararat Yerevan 0.86 · Alashkert FC 2.1), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ararat Yerevan vs Alashkert FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.