Football · England National League South · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United

Team pages: Farnborough · Ebbsfleet United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Farnborough1.13

Ebbsfleet United2.04

1X2

20% 23% 58%

Farnborough Draw Ebbsfleet United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnborough 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWLWL

Ebbsfleet United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWWL

Head-to-head

Farnborough 0–3–3 Ebbsfleet United (6 last)

Ebbsfleet United2-2Farnborough
Farnborough1-1Ebbsfleet United
Farnborough2-2Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United4-2Farnborough
Ebbsfleet United3-0Farnborough
Farnborough0-3Ebbsfleet United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnborough 1438 · Ebbsfleet United 1559

	Farnborough	Draw	Ebbsfleet United
Our model	20%	23%	57%
Market	20%	22%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1438 vs 1559).
H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 3-3-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnborough	Ebbsfleet United
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	2.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.1	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.8	3.3 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:46 +2’	4.50	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 0–3–3 Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-2 HT 1-1	Farnborough
29/11/25 England National League South	Farnborough	1-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
28/02/23 England National League South	Farnborough	2-2 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
20/08/22 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	4-2 HT 1-0	Farnborough
15/11/14 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	3-0 HT 0-0	Farnborough
04/10/14 England National League South	Farnborough	0-3 HT 0-2	Ebbsfleet United

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Truro City	14	9	3	2	27	12	30
2	Maidstone Utd	15	9	2	4	26	18	29
3	Ebbsfleet United	13	8	4	1	29	10	28
4	Salisbury FC	14	8	4	2	25	10	28
5	Billericay Town	13	7	4	2	32	16	25
6	Tonbridge Angels	15	7	3	5	27	16	24
7	Dorking Wanderers	14	6	6	2	31	21	24
8	Dag & Red	15	7	3	5	13	11	24
9	Farnham	14	7	2	5	27	19	23
10	Horsham	15	5	7	3	21	16	22
11	Dover	14	6	4	4	20	19	22
12	Chelmsford	13	4	9	0	21	12	21
13	Torquay	14	5	5	4	22	17	20
14	Folkestone Invicta	15	5	5	5	22	18	20
15	Weston Super Mare	14	5	3	6	21	21	18
16	Farnborough	14	5	2	7	12	25	17
17	Braintree Town	14	5	1	8	21	34	16
18	AFC Totton	15	5	1	9	14	27	16
19	Maidenhead Utd	15	3	6	6	14	19	15
20	Hemel Hempstead	15	3	6	6	14	22	15
21	Chesham	14	3	2	9	20	32	11
22	Hampton & Richmond	14	2	3	9	16	33	9
23	Walton & Hersham	14	2	2	10	10	33	8
24	Slough	15	1	1	13	15	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnborough	Ebbsfleet United
Horsham	0-5 L	2-2 D
Weston Super Mare	2-1 W	6-1 W
Folkestone Invicta	0-2 L	1-0 W
Hampton & Richmond	0-2 L	2-0 W
Tonbridge Angels	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnborough

WLLLDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Horsham England National League South	0-2	0-5	10	2	L
28/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
17/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
31/08	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

Ebbsfleet United

WDWWWWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-3	2	7	L
27/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	3-1	6	7	W
24/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	4-0	5	4	W
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ebbsfleet United win (58%). Probabilities: Farnborough 20%, draw 23%, Ebbsfleet United 58%.

How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Farnborough 1.13 · Ebbsfleet United 2.04), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Ebbsfleet United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.