Football · Peru Liga 2 · 27/09, 18:00

Prediction: Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica

Team pages: Alianza Universidad · Bentin Tacna Heroica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Alianza Universidad1.28

Bentin Tacna Heroica1

1X2

42% 29% 28%

Alianza Universidad Draw Bentin Tacna Heroica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Universidad 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWLDD

Bentin Tacna Heroica 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWDWLWD

Head-to-head

Alianza Universidad 1–1–0 Bentin Tacna Heroica (2 last)

Alianza Universidad1-0Bentin Tacna Heroica
Bentin Tacna Heroica0-0Alianza Universidad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Universidad 1493 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 1539

	Alianza Universidad	Draw	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Our model	42%	31%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bentin Tacna Heroica (rating 1493 vs 1539).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Universidad	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.4	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:52 +19’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Universidad 1–1–0 Bentin Tacna Heroica

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/26 Peru Liga 2	Alianza Universidad	1-0 HT 0-0	Bentin Tacna Heroica
09/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Bentin Tacna Heroica	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Universidad

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bentin Tacna Heroica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Carlos Manucci	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Universidad San Martin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alianza Universidad	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Universidad	Bentin Tacna Heroica
Deportivo Binacional	0-0 D	3-0 W
Union Minas	1-1 D	2-1 W
CD Estudiantil CNI	0-3 L	1-1 D
Santos FC	3-3 D	3-1 W
Sport Huancayo II	1-1 D	1-0 W
Comerciantes FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bentin Tacna Heroica (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Universidad

WLWLDDWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
06/09	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
24/08	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
17/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
31/07	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/07	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	3-2	6	1	W
31/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	12	3	L
23/05	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	3	2	W

Bentin Tacna Heroica

DLWWWDWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
30/08	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-1	4	7	W
24/08	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
09/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	2-2	2-2	0	2	D
26/07	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
19/07	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	1-1	2-1	7	8	W
30/05	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
16/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
09/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Universidad win (42%). Probabilities: Alianza Universidad 42%, draw 29%, Bentin Tacna Heroica 28%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Alianza Universidad 1.28 · Bentin Tacna Heroica 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Universidad vs Bentin Tacna Heroica?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.