Football · Peru Liga 2 · 06/10, 22:30
Prediction: CD Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Universidad
Team pages: CD Universidad San Martin · Alianza Universidad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
CD Universidad San Martin1.64
Alianza Universidad1.35
1X2
CD Universidad San Martin
Draw
Alianza Universidad
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Universidad San Martin
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Alianza Universidad
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Universidad San Martin
1–2–3
Alianza Universidad
(6 last)
- Alianza Universidad3-1CD Universidad San Martin
- CD Universidad San Martin2-3Alianza Universidad
- Alianza Universidad2-2CD Universidad San Martin
- CD Universidad San Martin0-2Alianza Universidad
- Alianza Universidad1-1CD Universidad San Martin
- Alianza Universidad0-1CD Universidad San Martin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Universidad San Martin 1479 · Alianza Universidad 1492
| CD Universidad San Martin | Draw | Alianza Universidad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Alianza Universidad: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Universidad San Martin | Alianza Universidad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4 | 2.1 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universidad San Martin 1–2–3 Alianza Universidad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/23 Peru Liga 2 | Alianza Universidad | 3-1 HT 1-0 | CD Universidad San Martin |
| 10/10/23 Peru Liga 2 | CD Universidad San Martin | 2-3 HT 2-0 | Alianza Universidad |
| 18/07/23 Peru Liga 2 | Alianza Universidad | 2-2 HT 0-1 | CD Universidad San Martin |
| 23/04/23 Peru Liga 2 | CD Universidad San Martin | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alianza Universidad |
| 23/08/21 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Universidad | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CD Universidad San Martin |
| 26/10/20 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Universidad | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CD Universidad San Martin |
Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Manucci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| 2 | Bentin Tacna Heroica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Alianza Universidad | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | CD Universidad San Martin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Universidad San Martin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 06/09 | Union Comercio Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 20/07 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
2-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 23/05 | Union Comercio Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
Alianza Universidad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 06/09 | Union Minas Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 17/08 | Santos FC Peru Liga 2 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 31/07 | Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Universidad?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Universidad San Martin win (43%). Probabilities: CD Universidad San Martin 43%, draw 27%, Alianza Universidad 30%.
How many goals are expected in CD Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Universidad?
The model expects 2.98 goals (CD Universidad San Martin 1.64 · Alianza Universidad 1.35), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Universidad San Martin vs Alianza Universidad?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.