Football · Peru Liga 2 · 26/09, 18:00

Prediction: Ayacucho FC vs Union Minas

Team pages: Ayacucho FC · Union Minas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Ayacucho FC1.53

Union Minas1.4

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Ayacucho FC Draw Union Minas

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ayacucho FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWLWLL

Union Minas 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Ayacucho FC 0–1–1 Union Minas (2 last)

Union Minas3-1Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC2-2Union Minas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ayacucho FC 1471 · Union Minas 1540

	Ayacucho FC	Draw	Union Minas
Our model	39%	27%	34%
Market	39%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Minas (rating 1471 vs 1540).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ayacucho FC	Union Minas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	1.6 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:43 +7’	2.30	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ayacucho FC 0–1–1 Union Minas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Minas	3-1 HT 0-0	Ayacucho FC
02/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Ayacucho FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Union Minas

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ayacucho FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pirata FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Comercio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Minas	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ayacucho FC	Union Minas
Sport Huancayo II	0-2 L	2-1 W
Comerciantes FC	1-5 L	2-2 D
Deportivo Binacional	7-1 W	8-1 W
CD Estudiantil CNI	1-0 W	3-0 W
Santos FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Alianza Universidad	2-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Minas (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ayacucho FC

WDDLWWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
04/09	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-5	3	6	L
22/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	2-1	7-1	–	–	W
15/08	Union Minas Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
09/08	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
26/07	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	7	8	W
18/07	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	1-2	2-3	2	1	L
01/06	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
22/05	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
09/05	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W

Union Minas

LWLWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
06/09	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Sport Huancayo II Peru Liga 2	0-0	2-1	3	8	W
22/08	Comerciantes FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-2	3	2	D
15/08	Ayacucho FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	3-1	5	6	W
07/08	Deportivo Binacional Peru Liga 2	3-0	8-1	–	–	W
24/07	CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
19/07	Bentin Tacna Heroica Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-2	1	8	L
29/05	Santos FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
23/05	Alianza Universidad Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ayacucho FC vs Union Minas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ayacucho FC win (39%). Probabilities: Ayacucho FC 39%, draw 28%, Union Minas 33%.

How many goals are expected in Ayacucho FC vs Union Minas?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Ayacucho FC 1.53 · Union Minas 1.4), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ayacucho FC vs Union Minas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.