Football · Peru Liga 2 · 27/09, 22:15

Prediction: Union Comercio vs Pirata FC

Team pages: Union Comercio · Pirata FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Union Comercio1.8

Pirata FC0.59

1X2

66% 22% 11%

Union Comercio Draw Pirata FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Comercio 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDDWL

Pirata FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLDLD

Head-to-head

Union Comercio 5–1 Pirata FC (6 last)

Pirata FC1-2Union Comercio
Union Comercio1-2Pirata FC
Union Comercio4-1Pirata FC
Pirata FC0-2Union Comercio
Union Comercio4-2Pirata FC
Pirata FC0-3Union Comercio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Comercio 1525 · Pirata FC 1481

	Union Comercio	Draw	Pirata FC
Our model	66%	24%	11%
Market	67%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Comercio (rating 1525 vs 1481).
H2H favours Union Comercio: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Comercio	Pirata FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.3	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.20

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:04 +2’	1.33	4.20	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Comercio 5–0–1 Pirata FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/26 Peru Liga 2	Pirata FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Union Comercio
03/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	1-2 HT 0-1	Pirata FC
24/07/22 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	4-1	Pirata FC
23/04/22 Peru Liga 2	Pirata FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Union Comercio
10/08/21 Peru Liga 2	Union Comercio	4-2 HT 2-2	Pirata FC
26/05/21 Peru Liga 2	Pirata FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Union Comercio

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Main Round, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ayacucho FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pirata FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Comercio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Minas	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Comercio	Pirata FC
Club Ada Jaen	0-1 L	1-3 L
CD Universidad San Martin	1-0 W	3-2 W
Deportivo Llacuabamba	1-1 D	0-0 D
Carlos Manucci	0-0 D	2-4 L
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	4-0 W	1-1 D
Cesar Vallejo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Comercio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Comercio

DWWDWWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
06/09	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
07/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
25/07	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
23/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
17/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	14	12	D

Pirata FC

WLWWLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
07/09	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-2	2-4	3	3	L
23/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/08	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
09/08	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
26/07	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
20/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	1-2	3-2	7	8	W
01/06	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	1-0	3-1	3	5	W
24/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
11/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	2-1	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Comercio vs Pirata FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Comercio win (66%). Probabilities: Union Comercio 66%, draw 22%, Pirata FC 11%.

How many goals are expected in Union Comercio vs Pirata FC?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Union Comercio 1.8 · Pirata FC 0.59), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Comercio vs Pirata FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.