Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 17/10, 04:00
Prediction: Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II
Team pages: Portland Timbers II · St Louis City II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.61Total
Portland Timbers II1.34
St Louis City II1.27
1X2
Portland Timbers II
Draw
St Louis City II
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Portland Timbers II
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
St Louis City II
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Portland Timbers II
2–2–2
St Louis City II
(6 last)
- Portland Timbers II1-1St Louis City II
- St Louis City II1-2Portland Timbers II
- Portland Timbers II2-1St Louis City II
- St Louis City II6-3Portland Timbers II
- St Louis City II1-1Portland Timbers II
- St Louis City II4-1Portland Timbers II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Portland Timbers II 1559 · St Louis City II 1509
| Portland Timbers II | Draw | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Timbers II (rating 1559 vs 1509).
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Portland Timbers II | St Louis City II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 2.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers II 2–2–2 St Louis City II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 1-1 HT 0-0 | St Louis City II |
| 19/07/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 05/10/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | Portland Timbers II | 2-1 HT 2-0 | St Louis City II |
| 24/05/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 6-3 HT 1-2 | Portland Timbers II |
| 08/04/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers II |
| 19/08/23 USA MLS Next Pro League | St Louis City II | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Portland Timbers II |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin FC II | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 54 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 37 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Ventura County FC | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 58 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | Houston Dynamo II | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 53 | 33 | 52 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC II | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 43 | 39 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC II | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 50 | 48 | 45 |
| 7 | St Louis City II | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 40 | 44 |
| 8 | The Town | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 51 | 36 | 42 |
| 9 | Tacoma Defiance | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 44 | 41 |
| 10 | North Texas SC | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 42 | 41 | 40 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs SLC | 28 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 55 | 33 |
| 12 | Vancouver Whitecaps II | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 62 | 27 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas City II | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 36 | 75 | 23 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 28 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 52 | 21 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Portland Timbers II | St Louis City II |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps II | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Austin FC II | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| North Texas SC | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Real Monarchs SLC | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Portland Timbers II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Portland Timbers II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 14/09 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 30/08 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 24/08 | Ventura County FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Minnesota United FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 19/07 | St Louis City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
St Louis City II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 14/09 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 29/08 | North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 24/08 | Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 17/08 | The Town USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 27/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/07 | Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers II win (38%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers II 38%, draw 27%, St Louis City II 35%.
How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?
The model expects 2.61 goals (Portland Timbers II 1.34 · St Louis City II 1.27), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Portland Timbers II vs St Louis City II?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.