Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 17/10, 04:00

Prediction: Ventura County FC vs Minnesota United FC II

Team pages: Ventura County FC · Minnesota United FC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Ventura County FC1.72

Minnesota United FC II1.64

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Ventura County FC Draw Minnesota United FC II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ventura County FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Minnesota United FC II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ventura County FC 1–3 Minnesota United FC II (4 last)

Minnesota United FC II0-2Ventura County FC
Minnesota United FC II1-0Ventura County FC
Minnesota United FC II3-2Ventura County FC
Ventura County FC1-2Minnesota United FC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ventura County FC 1575 · Minnesota United FC II 1542

	Ventura County FC	Draw	Minnesota United FC II
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Minnesota United FC II: 3-0-1.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ventura County FC	Minnesota United FC II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 0.9	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +6’	2.25	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ventura County FC 1–0–3 Minnesota United FC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/25 USA MLS Next Pro League	Minnesota United FC II	0-2 HT 0-1	Ventura County FC
12/05/24 USA MLS Next Pro League	Minnesota United FC II	1-0 HT 0-0	Ventura County FC
25/05/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Minnesota United FC II	3-2 HT 1-1	Ventura County FC
10/04/23 USA MLS Next Pro League	Ventura County FC	1-2 HT 1-2	Minnesota United FC II

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Austin FC II	28	19	6	3	54	21	65
2	Portland Timbers II	28	14	10	4	37	29	57
3	Ventura County FC	28	14	7	7	58	36	53
4	Houston Dynamo II	28	14	6	8	53	33	52
5	Minnesota United FC II	28	12	6	10	43	39	45
6	Los Angeles FC II	28	11	9	8	50	48	45
7	St Louis City II	28	10	10	8	42	40	44
8	The Town	28	11	6	11	51	36	42
9	Tacoma Defiance	28	11	5	12	40	44	41
10	North Texas SC	28	8	10	10	42	41	40
11	Real Monarchs SLC	28	8	5	15	38	55	33
12	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	6	5	17	39	62	27
13	Sporting Kansas City II	28	6	4	18	36	75	23
14	Colorado Rapids II	28	4	7	17	28	52	21

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ventura County FC	Minnesota United FC II
Real Monarchs SLC	1-2 L	0-0 D
The Town	3-1 W	1-1 D
Los Angeles FC II	1-1 D	3-2 W
Colorado Rapids II	3-2 W	2-0 W
Portland Timbers II	2-2 D	1-2 L
Houston Dynamo II	2-0 W	2-0 W
North Texas SC	6-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ventura County FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
14/09	Tacoma Defiance USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
10/09	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
06/09	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
29/08	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	3-2	8	5	W
24/08	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
15/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
01/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-0	6-1	5	2	W
26/07	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/07	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-0	3	5	W

Minnesota United FC II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Los Angeles FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
17/09	Real Monarchs SLC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
13/09	Vancouver Whitecaps II USA MLS Next Pro League	4-0	5-1	9	3	W
06/09	Colorado Rapids II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-0	15	3	W
31/08	Houston Dynamo II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	North Texas SC USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-1	10	6	D
09/08	The Town USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
01/08	Portland Timbers II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
20/07	Sporting Kansas City II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
13/07	Austin FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	3-2	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ventura County FC vs Minnesota United FC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ventura County FC win (40%). Probabilities: Ventura County FC 40%, draw 24%, Minnesota United FC II 36%.

How many goals are expected in Ventura County FC vs Minnesota United FC II?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Ventura County FC 1.72 · Minnesota United FC II 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ventura County FC vs Minnesota United FC II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.