Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 18/10, 23:00
Prediction: Chattanooga FC vs New York City FC II
Team pages: Chattanooga FC · New York City FC II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
Chattanooga FC2.05
New York City FC II1.32
1X2
Chattanooga FC
Draw
New York City FC II
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Chattanooga FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
New York City FC II
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chattanooga FC
1–2–0
New York City FC II
(3 last)
- New York City FC II1-1Chattanooga FC
- New York City FC II0-1Chattanooga FC
- New York City FC II1-1Chattanooga FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chattanooga FC 1576 · New York City FC II 1520
| Chattanooga FC | Draw | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 22% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga FC (rating 1576 vs 1520).
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chattanooga FC | New York City FC II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1 | 2.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.8 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga FC 1–2–0 New York City FC II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/06/26 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Chattanooga FC |
| 29/09/25 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Chattanooga FC |
| 28/03/24 USA MLS Next Pro League | New York City FC II | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chattanooga FC |
Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 67 | 39 | 58 |
| 2 | Chattanooga FC | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 56 | 39 | 56 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 62 | 46 | 48 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 43 | 48 |
| 5 | New England Revolution II | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 48 |
| 6 | New York City FC II | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 50 | 44 | 47 |
| 7 | CT United | 28 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 59 | 52 | 46 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls II | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 48 | 46 |
| 9 | Huntsville City | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 49 | 47 | 44 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 55 | 56 | 44 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 40 | 43 |
| 12 | Toronto FC II | 28 | 11 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 56 | 39 |
| 13 | Chicago Fire II | 28 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 39 |
| 14 | Carolina Core FC | 28 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 40 | 53 | 31 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 32 | 62 | 20 |
| 16 | Inter Miami CF II | 28 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 30 | 74 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chattanooga FC | New York City FC II |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC II | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Inter Miami CF II | 1-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Philadelphia Union II | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Orlando City II | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Chattanooga FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chattanooga FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/09 | Huntsville City USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 5-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 24/08 | Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 0 | D |
New York City FC II
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | CT United USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 08/09 | New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/09 | Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-3 | 2-4 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Toronto FC II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/08 | FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/08 | Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chattanooga FC vs New York City FC II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chattanooga FC win (54%). Probabilities: Chattanooga FC 54%, draw 23%, New York City FC II 24%.
How many goals are expected in Chattanooga FC vs New York City FC II?
The model expects 3.36 goals (Chattanooga FC 2.05 · New York City FC II 1.32), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chattanooga FC vs New York City FC II?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.