Football · USA MLS Next Pro League · 17/10, 00:00

Prediction: Atlanta United II vs CT United

Team pages: Atlanta United II · CT United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

Atlanta United II2.29

CT United1.89

1X2

46% 22% 32%

Atlanta United II Draw CT United

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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CT United 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atlanta United II 1–0 CT United (1 last)

Atlanta United II4-1CT United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United II 1527 · CT United 1522

	Atlanta United II	Draw	CT United
Our model	47%	21%	32%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United II	CT United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.8	2.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:02 +7’	1.95	4.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +44’	2.23	3.71	2.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United II 1–0–0 CT United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/09/26 USA MLS Next Pro League	Atlanta United II	4-1 HT 1-0	CT United

Standings · USA MLS Next Pro League · MLS Next Pro 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crown Legacy	28	15	8	5	67	39	58
2	Chattanooga FC	28	15	7	6	56	39	56
3	Atlanta United II	28	14	5	9	62	46	48
4	Columbus Crew II	28	12	7	9	49	43	48
5	New England Revolution II	28	12	8	8	47	42	48
6	New York City FC II	28	13	5	10	50	44	47
7	CT United	28	14	2	12	59	52	46
8	New York Red Bulls II	28	13	5	10	58	48	46
9	Huntsville City	28	12	6	10	49	47	44
10	Orlando City II	28	11	7	10	55	56	44
11	Philadelphia Union II	28	12	5	11	37	40	43
12	Toronto FC II	28	11	4	13	48	56	39
13	Chicago Fire II	28	10	6	12	50	48	39
14	Carolina Core FC	28	5	11	12	40	53	31
15	FC Cincinnati II	28	5	3	20	32	62	20
16	Inter Miami CF II	28	3	5	20	30	74	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United II	CT United
Orlando City II	4-2 W	4-2 W
Inter Miami CF II	1-1 D	7-2 W
New York Red Bulls II	1-2 L	2-4 L
New York City FC II	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atlanta United II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	3-2	4-2	5	7	W
13/09	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
08/09	CT United USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	4-1	1	5	W
29/08	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
22/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	5-1	3	1	W
18/08	Chicago Fire II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
14/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-2	1-2	6	4	L
09/08	Chattanooga FC USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
31/07	Carolina Core FC USA MLS Next Pro League	3-2	3-3	5	2	D
26/07	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	3-2	2	5	W

CT United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Inter Miami CF II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	7-2	7	3	W
13/09	New York City FC II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
08/09	Atlanta United II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
30/08	New York Red Bulls II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-4	8	5	L
23/08	Philadelphia Union II USA MLS Next Pro League	4-0	4-2	3	12	W
20/08	Crown Legacy USA MLS Next Pro League	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	FC Cincinnati II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-2	3-2	3	6	W
09/08	New England Revolution II USA MLS Next Pro League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
02/08	Orlando City II USA MLS Next Pro League	2-1	4-2	2	2	W
27/07	Columbus Crew II USA MLS Next Pro League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United II vs CT United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United II win (46%). Probabilities: Atlanta United II 46%, draw 22%, CT United 32%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United II vs CT United?

The model expects 4.18 goals (Atlanta United II 2.29 · CT United 1.89), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United II vs CT United?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.