Football · Uruguay Clausura · 03/10, 16:00
Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Club Atletico Progreso
Team pages: Liverpool Montevideo · Club Atletico Progreso
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Liverpool Montevideo1.81
Club Atletico Progreso0.93
1X2
Liverpool Montevideo
Draw
Club Atletico Progreso
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Liverpool Montevideo
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Club Atletico Progreso
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Liverpool Montevideo
3–1–2
Club Atletico Progreso
(6 last)
- Club Atletico Progreso3-3Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo3-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso0-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo2-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso2-1Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo0-1Club Atletico Progreso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liverpool Montevideo 1542 · Club Atletico Progreso 1450
| Liverpool Montevideo | Draw | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liverpool Montevideo (rating 1542 vs 1450).
- H2H favours Liverpool Montevideo: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Liverpool Montevideo | Club Atletico Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.8 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.6 / 0.3 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 3–1–2 Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 26/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 27/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 03/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 28/04/24 Uruguay Apertura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 03/10/21 Uruguay Clausura | Liverpool Montevideo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Liverpool Montevideo | Club Atletico Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Torque | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Boston River | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Cerro | 4-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 15/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 10 | L |
| 07/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 4-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 08/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 07/11 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 01/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 26/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool Montevideo win (57%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 57%, draw 25%, Club Atletico Progreso 18%.
How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 1.81 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Club Atletico Progreso?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.