Football · Uruguay Clausura · 06/10, 01:00

Prediction: Nacional De Football vs Torque

Team pages: Nacional De Football · Torque

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Nacional De Football1.31

Torque1.31

1X2

36% 27% 36%

Nacional De Football Draw Torque

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional De Football 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Torque 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nacional De Football 5–1 Torque (6 last)

Torque1-2Nacional De Football
Torque2-3Nacional De Football
Nacional De Football5-2Torque
Torque1-2Nacional De Football
Torque1-0Nacional De Football
Nacional De Football4-0Torque

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional De Football 1575 · Torque 1558

	Nacional De Football	Draw	Torque
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nacional De Football: 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional De Football	Torque
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	44/33/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.8	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +2’	2.45	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional De Football 5–0–1 Torque

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Torque	1-2 HT 1-0	Nacional De Football
28/03/26 Uruguay Apertura	Torque	2-3 HT 1-3	Nacional De Football
02/08/25 Uruguay Clausura	Nacional De Football	5-2 HT 3-2	Torque
01/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Torque	1-2 HT 1-0	Nacional De Football
02/02/25 Uruguay Apertura	Torque	1-0 HT 1-0	Nacional De Football
23/11/24 Uruguay Cup	Nacional De Football	4-0 HT 1-0	Torque

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montevideo Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
2	Nacional De Football	7	4	1	2	8	8	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	12
4	Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	12
5	Juventud De Las Piedras	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
7	Club Atletico Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional De Football	Torque
Cerro Largo	2-0 W	2-1 W
Defensor Sporting	3-2 W	3-1 W
Montevideo Wanderers	1-1 D	5-1 W
Juventud De Las Piedras	2-2 D	1-0 W
Penarol	1-0 W	0-2 L
Club Atletico Progreso	1-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Torque (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional De Football

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
20/09	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	0-1	3-2	13	7	W
12/09	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-2	6	5	D
30/08	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/08	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
09/08	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-2	11	4	L
09/11	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
01/11	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

Torque

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
22/09	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	2-1	4-1	4	6	W
15/09	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
05/09	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	0-1	2-1	12	8	W
29/08	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
23/08	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	–	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
09/11	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
01/11	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	3-0	5-0	6	6	W
25/10	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	10	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional De Football vs Torque?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional De Football win (36%). Probabilities: Nacional De Football 36%, draw 27%, Torque 36%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional De Football vs Torque?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Nacional De Football 1.31 · Torque 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional De Football vs Torque?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.