Football · Uruguay Clausura · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Cerro

Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Cerro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Defensor Sporting1.17

Cerro0.8

1X2

44% 31% 25%

Defensor Sporting Draw Cerro

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Defensor Sporting 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWLWL

Cerro 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLDWWLD

Head-to-head

Defensor Sporting 3–1–2 Cerro (6 last)

Defensor Sporting2-1Cerro
Cerro1-0Defensor Sporting
Cerro1-0Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting2-1Cerro
Defensor Sporting3-2Cerro
Cerro1-1Defensor Sporting

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting 1435 · Cerro 1488

	Defensor Sporting	Draw	Cerro
Our model	43%	33%	24%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro (rating 1435 vs 1488).
H2H favours Defensor Sporting: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensor Sporting	Cerro
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.2 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +9’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 3–1–2 Cerro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/08/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Defensor Sporting	2-1 HT 1-1	Cerro
05/04/26 Uruguay Apertura	Cerro	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensor Sporting
12/10/25 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensor Sporting
23/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Defensor Sporting	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerro
14/04/25 Uruguay Apertura	Defensor Sporting	3-2 HT 2-1	Cerro
07/09/24 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-1 HT 1-0	Defensor Sporting

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	11
3	Racing Club de Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensor Sporting	Cerro
Albion FC	2-3 L	2-1 W
Danubio	1-0 W	1-0 W
Nacional De Football	2-3 L	0-0 D
Liverpool Montevideo	0-4 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Defensor Sporting

DLLDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	0-2	2-3	9	7	L
27/09	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
20/09	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-3	2	7	L
13/09	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/09	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
29/08	Torque Uruguay Clausura	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
16/08	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-4	8	10	L
09/08	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	8	8	L
09/11	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-1	1	7	D

Cerro

DDWWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/09	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
13/09	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
06/09	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
29/08	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-4	1	5	L
15/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	1	0	W
09/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	0	4	W
09/11	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
01/11	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting win (44%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 44%, draw 31%, Cerro 25%.

How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Defensor Sporting 1.17 · Cerro 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.