Football · Uruguay Clausura · 10/10, 23:00

Prediction: Penarol vs Club Atletico Progreso

Team pages: Penarol · Club Atletico Progreso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Penarol1.98

Club Atletico Progreso0.58

1X2

70% 20% 10%

Penarol Draw Club Atletico Progreso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Penarol 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWWWWD

Club Atletico Progreso 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Penarol 6–0 Club Atletico Progreso (6 last)

Club Atletico Progreso0-2Penarol
Penarol2-1Club Atletico Progreso
Club Atletico Progreso1-3Penarol
Club Atletico Progreso1-5Penarol
Club Atletico Progreso0-2Penarol
Penarol3-1Club Atletico Progreso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Penarol 1590 · Club Atletico Progreso 1444

	Penarol	Draw	Club Atletico Progreso
Our model	70%	21%	9%
Market	71%	19%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1590 vs 1444).
H2H favours Penarol: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Penarol	Club Atletico Progreso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.7	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.27

X4.75

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
21:08 +8’	1.27	4.75	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 6–0–0 Club Atletico Progreso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Uruguay Apertura	Club Atletico Progreso	0-2 HT 0-2	Penarol
02/08/25 Uruguay Clausura	Penarol	2-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico Progreso
02/02/25 Uruguay Apertura	Club Atletico Progreso	1-3 HT 0-1	Penarol
27/11/24 Uruguay Clausura	Club Atletico Progreso	1-5 HT 0-2	Penarol
22/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Club Atletico Progreso	0-2 HT 0-0	Penarol
24/05/24 Uruguay Apertura	Penarol	3-1 HT 0-1	Club Atletico Progreso

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montevideo Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
2	Nacional De Football	7	4	1	2	8	8	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	12
4	Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	12
5	Juventud De Las Piedras	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
7	Club Atletico Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Penarol	Club Atletico Progreso
Boston River	2-1 W	2-1 W
Cerro	2-1 W	1-3 L
Albion FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
Danubio	4-0 W	1-0 W
Nacional De Football	0-1 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Maldonado	0-0 D	0-2 L
Central Espanol	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Penarol (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Penarol

WWWDLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Torque Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/09	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
19/09	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
14/09	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
05/09	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	4-0	3	0	W
30/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
22/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
16/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
09/11	Torque Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
02/11	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	8	5	W

Club Atletico Progreso

DLLLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-1	2-3	4	8	L
26/09	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/09	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
07/09	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
29/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
23/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
09/11	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Club Atletico Progreso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (70%). Probabilities: Penarol 70%, draw 20%, Club Atletico Progreso 10%.

How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Club Atletico Progreso?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Penarol 1.98 · Club Atletico Progreso 0.58), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Penarol vs Club Atletico Progreso?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.