Football · Uruguay Clausura · 05/10, 00:30

Prediction: Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol

Team pages: Racing Club de Montevideo · Penarol

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Racing Club de Montevideo1

Penarol1.29

1X2

28% 30% 42%

Racing Club de Montevideo Draw Penarol

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Club de Montevideo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLWDL

Penarol 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Racing Club de Montevideo 2–2–2 Penarol (6 last)

Racing Club de Montevideo1-1Penarol
Penarol1-2Racing Club de Montevideo
Penarol1-0Racing Club de Montevideo
Racing Club de Montevideo1-4Penarol
Penarol0-2Racing Club de Montevideo
Penarol0-0Racing Club de Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Club de Montevideo 1499 · Penarol 1577

	Racing Club de Montevideo	Draw	Penarol
Our model	27%	31%	42%
Market	28%	30%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1499 vs 1577).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Club de Montevideo	Penarol
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.00

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +5’	3.20	3.00	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club de Montevideo 2–2–2 Penarol

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Racing Club de Montevideo	1-1 HT 1-0	Penarol
30/03/26 Uruguay Apertura	Penarol	1-2 HT 0-1	Racing Club de Montevideo
20/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga	Penarol	1-0 HT 1-0	Racing Club de Montevideo
31/08/25 Uruguay Clausura	Racing Club de Montevideo	1-4 HT 1-2	Penarol
09/03/25 Uruguay Apertura	Penarol	0-2 HT 0-1	Racing Club de Montevideo
01/10/24 Uruguay Clausura	Penarol	0-0 HT 0-0	Racing Club de Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	11
3	Racing Club de Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Racing Club de Montevideo	Penarol
Boston River	3-2 W	2-1 W
Cerro	0-1 L	2-1 W
Albion FC	1-0 W	3-1 W
Danubio	0-0 D	4-0 W
Nacional De Football	2-0 W	0-1 L
Deportivo Maldonado	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Penarol (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Racing Club de Montevideo

LWDWDWLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
21/09	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-0	3-2	2	5	W
06/09	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
31/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
11/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
07/11	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
02/11	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-2	3	6	L

Penarol

LWWWDLWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
19/09	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
14/09	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
05/09	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-0	4-0	3	0	W
30/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
22/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
16/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
09/11	Torque Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
02/11	Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
25/10	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-1	0-2	6	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Penarol win (42%). Probabilities: Racing Club de Montevideo 28%, draw 30%, Penarol 42%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Racing Club de Montevideo 1 · Penarol 1.29), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Penarol?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.