Football · Uruguay Clausura · 04/10, 15:00
Prediction: Danubio vs Cerro Largo
Team pages: Danubio · Cerro Largo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.92Total
Danubio1.1
Cerro Largo0.82
1X2
Danubio
Draw
Cerro Largo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 58%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Danubio
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Cerro Largo
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Danubio
0–4–2
Cerro Largo
(6 last)
- Cerro Largo2-0Danubio
- Cerro Largo1-0Danubio
- Cerro Largo2-2Danubio
- Danubio0-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo0-0Danubio
- Cerro Largo2-2Danubio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Danubio 1459 · Cerro Largo 1479
| Danubio | Draw | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 34% | 26% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cerro Largo: 2-4-0.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Danubio | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.4 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Danubio 0–4–2 Cerro Largo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Danubio |
| 19/08/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 06/03/25 Copa Sudamericana | Cerro Largo | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Danubio |
| 15/02/25 Uruguay Apertura | Danubio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 20/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 09/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro Largo | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Danubio |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Danubio | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Plaza Colonia | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Danubio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 09/08 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 08/11 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/11 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 26/10 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 07/11 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 03/11 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Danubio win (41%). Probabilities: Danubio 41%, draw 32%, Cerro Largo 27%.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
The model expects 1.92 goals (Danubio 1.1 · Cerro Largo 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.