Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 02/10, 16:00

Prediction: FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: FK Minija · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

FK Minija2.77

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0.89

1X2

76% 15% 9%

FK Minija Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Minija 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

FK Minija 4–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-4FK Minija
FK Kauno Zalgiris II1-2FK Minija
FK Minija2-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-1FK Minija
FK Minija1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Minija3-0FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Minija 1632 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1483

	FK Minija	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	76%	15%	9%
Market	77%	14%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Minija (rating 1632 vs 1483).
H2H favours FK Minija: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Minija	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.4	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.8 / 8.1	2.6 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.18

X6.50

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.98

2 (+2.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 14:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18
X	6.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.41
2	11.00 → 9.50▼	Pinn 11.20 ★

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
09:05 +2’	1.18	6.00	11.00
16:43 +3’	1.20▲	6.00	10.00▼
01:01 +2’	1.18▼	6.00	11.00▲
02:59 +9’	1.20▲	6.00	10.00▼
09:56 +11’	1.17▼	6.50▲	11.00▲
11:05 +7’	1.17	7.00▲	11.00
14:44 +4’	1.18▲	6.50▼	9.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:16 +3’	1.13	6.76	10.52
08:58 +7’	1.13▲	6.74▼	10.45▼
10:03 +3’	1.12▼	7.23▲	10.99▲
12:17 +36’	1.13▲	7.01▼	10.45▼
14:04 +45’	1.13	7.41▲	11.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Minija 4–0–2 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-4 HT 0-3	FK Minija
13/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Minija
10/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
03/08/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Minija
08/03/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
15/09/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Minija	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Minija	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Ekranas	5-0 W	2-1 W
FK BE1	3-0 W	0-1 L
FC Hegelmann II	4-0 W	3-0 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	1-2 L
Lietava Jonava	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Garliava	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FK Minija (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Minija

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	12	3	W
05/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
28/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	9	8	W
14/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	5-0	7	3	W
08/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
31/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-0	9	1	W
28/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
18/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/06	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLLWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
28/06	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Minija win (76%). Probabilities: FK Minija 76%, draw 15%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 9%.

How many goals are expected in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 3.67 goals (FK Minija 2.77 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 0.89), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.