Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Babrungas vs Lietava Jonava

Team pages: FK Babrungas · Lietava Jonava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

FK Babrungas1.84

Lietava Jonava0.66

1X2

65% 22% 12%

FK Babrungas Draw Lietava Jonava

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Babrungas 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDWLWW

Lietava Jonava 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWDLL

Head-to-head

FK Babrungas 2–1–3 Lietava Jonava (6 last)

Lietava Jonava1-1FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-2Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava1-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas2-1Lietava Jonava
Lietava Jonava3-2FK Babrungas
FK Babrungas1-2Lietava Jonava

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Babrungas 1578 · Lietava Jonava 1460

	FK Babrungas	Draw	Lietava Jonava
Our model	65%	24%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Babrungas (rating 1578 vs 1460).
H2H favours Lietava Jonava: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Babrungas	Lietava Jonava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.7	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	1.4 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:19 +10’	1.36	4.20	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Babrungas 2–1–3 Lietava Jonava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
17/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-2 HT 1-2	Lietava Jonava
18/04/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Babrungas
13/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	2-1 HT 1-1	Lietava Jonava
27/05/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	Lietava Jonava	3-2 HT 0-0	FK Babrungas
06/07/21 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Babrungas	1-2 HT 1-1	Lietava Jonava

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Babrungas	Lietava Jonava
FK Garliava	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Tauras	1-1 D	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	4-0 W	0-2 L
DFK Dainava	1-2 L	0-0 D
FK Transinvest II	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Ekranas	2-0 W	1-2 L
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Babrungas (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Babrungas

WWWLWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
11/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	3-2	10	3	W
04/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-2	4	4	L
29/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
08/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
03/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
19/07	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	4	W

Lietava Jonava

LWWLLLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
11/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
04/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
29/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
21/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
14/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
07/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/07	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-2	1-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Babrungas vs Lietava Jonava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Babrungas win (65%). Probabilities: FK Babrungas 65%, draw 22%, Lietava Jonava 12%.

How many goals are expected in FK Babrungas vs Lietava Jonava?

The model expects 2.5 goals (FK Babrungas 1.84 · Lietava Jonava 0.66), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Babrungas vs Lietava Jonava?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.