Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 09/10, 19:15

Prediction: BFA Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Team pages: BFA Vilnius · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

BFA Vilnius1.87

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1.21

1X2

52% 24% 24%

BFA Vilnius Draw FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BFA Vilnius 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWWD

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

BFA Vilnius 3–2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II (6 last)

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II3-4BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius1-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II4-1BFA Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-6BFA Vilnius
BFA Vilnius0-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II1-1BFA Vilnius

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFA Vilnius 1576 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1578

	BFA Vilnius	Draw	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Our model	52%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours BFA Vilnius: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFA Vilnius	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	3.1 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:08 +6’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFA Vilnius 3–2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	3-4 HT 2-1	BFA Vilnius
12/09/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
11/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	4-1 HT 0-0	BFA Vilnius
07/08/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-6 HT 1-2	BFA Vilnius
18/03/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	BFA Vilnius	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
12/11/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-1 HT 1-1	BFA Vilnius

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFA Vilnius	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II
FK Babrungas	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Tauras	2-2 D	1-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 W	1-0 W
DFK Dainava	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Transinvest II	4-2 W	4-3 W
FK Siauliai II	0-1 L	4-1 W
FK Ekranas	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: BFA Vilnius (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFA Vilnius

WWLWDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	3-2	4	3	W
04/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
28/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
15/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
08/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-0	4-2	8	5	W
02/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
26/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	5	4	W
19/07	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W

FK Zalgiris Vilnius II

WWDWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
12/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
07/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
28/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
25/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	3-1	4-3	5	7	W
14/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
10/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
01/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
28/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
21/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	11	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFA Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BFA Vilnius win (52%). Probabilities: BFA Vilnius 52%, draw 24%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 24%.

How many goals are expected in BFA Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model expects 3.08 goals (BFA Vilnius 1.87 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius II 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in BFA Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.