Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 09/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Siauliai II vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Team pages: FK Siauliai II · FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

FK Siauliai II1.84

FK Kauno Zalgiris II1.5

1X2

45% 24% 31%

FK Siauliai II Draw FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Siauliai II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWLLLW

FK Kauno Zalgiris II 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLWWL

Head-to-head

FK Siauliai II 1–2–3 FK Kauno Zalgiris II (6 last)

FK Kauno Zalgiris II2-0FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II1-2FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II5-2FK Siauliai II
FK Kauno Zalgiris II0-5FK Siauliai II
FK Siauliai II4-4FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Siauliai II2-2FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Siauliai II 1460 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1503

	FK Siauliai II	Draw	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Kauno Zalgiris II (rating 1460 vs 1503).
H2H favours FK Kauno Zalgiris II: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Siauliai II	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.8	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +9’	2.00	3.75	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Siauliai II 1–2–3 FK Kauno Zalgiris II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Siauliai II
29/08/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	1-2 HT 0-1	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
03/05/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	5-2 HT 2-1	FK Siauliai II
21/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	0-5 HT 0-1	FK Siauliai II
03/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	4-4 HT 2-3	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
02/10/23 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Siauliai II	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Kauno Zalgiris II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Siauliai II	FK Kauno Zalgiris II
FK Ekranas	6-2 W	2-1 W
FK BE1	0-2 L	0-1 L
FC Hegelmann II	1-5 L	3-0 W
FK Minija	1-2 L	0-5 L
Lietava Jonava	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	1-4 L	1-2 L
FK Atmosfera	1-1 D	3-1 W
FK Tauras	1-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Kauno Zalgiris II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Siauliai II

LLWDLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	6-2	7	9	W
14/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	3	2	L
04/09	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-4	1-5	3	2	L
28/08	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
21/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	12	3	L
08/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
02/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
25/07	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
19/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	1-3	6	5	L

FK Kauno Zalgiris II

LLWLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
19/09	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-2	4	4	W
12/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
04/09	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
29/08	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	3-0	12	3	W
14/08	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
10/08	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-2	2	2	L
01/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
24/07	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	2-1	2-4	4	4	L
19/07	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Siauliai II vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Siauliai II win (45%). Probabilities: FK Siauliai II 45%, draw 24%, FK Kauno Zalgiris II 31%.

How many goals are expected in FK Siauliai II vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model expects 3.34 goals (FK Siauliai II 1.84 · FK Kauno Zalgiris II 1.5), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Siauliai II vs FK Kauno Zalgiris II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.