Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Garliava vs FK Atmosfera

Team pages: FK Garliava · FK Atmosfera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

FK Garliava1.17

FK Atmosfera1.5

1X2

29% 26% 44%

FK Garliava Draw FK Atmosfera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Garliava 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLW

FK Atmosfera 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

FK Garliava 1–2–2 FK Atmosfera (5 last)

FK Atmosfera1-1FK Garliava
FK Garliava0-1FK Atmosfera
FK Atmosfera3-2FK Garliava
FK Atmosfera2-3FK Garliava
FK Garliava1-1FK Atmosfera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Garliava 1414 · FK Atmosfera 1468

	FK Garliava	Draw	FK Atmosfera
Our model	29%	28%	44%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Atmosfera (rating 1414 vs 1468).
H2H favours FK Atmosfera: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Garliava	FK Atmosfera
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:19 +10’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Garliava 1–2–2 FK Atmosfera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Garliava
26/10/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera
08/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	3-2 HT 1-1	FK Garliava
07/10/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Atmosfera	2-3 HT 1-1	FK Garliava
03/06/22 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Garliava	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Atmosfera

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	24	21	1	2	63	13	64
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	24	11	7	6	34	23	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
11	FC Hegelmann II	25	7	1	17	30	56	22
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	24	7	1	16	23	38	22
13	FK Garliava	24	6	4	14	27	30	22
14	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Garliava	FK Atmosfera
DFK Dainava	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Kauno Zalgiris II	2-3 L	1-3 L
BFA Vilnius	2-3 L	1-1 D
FK Babrungas	0-1 L	2-3 L
FK BE1	0-2 L	0-1 L
FK Tauras	0-1 L	3-1 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Garliava

LLLLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
19/09	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-3	2	4	L
12/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	2-3	4	3	L
05/09	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
29/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
21/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
01/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
25/07	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
26/06	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	4	1	L

FK Atmosfera

LWLDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
11/09	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-3	2-3	2	3	L
05/09	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	3-1	3	6	W
29/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-3	7	4	L
22/08	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
14/08	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
08/08	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
01/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-3	5	3	L
25/07	FC Hegelmann II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
01/07	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Garliava vs FK Atmosfera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Atmosfera win (44%). Probabilities: FK Garliava 29%, draw 26%, FK Atmosfera 44%.

How many goals are expected in FK Garliava vs FK Atmosfera?

The model expects 2.67 goals (FK Garliava 1.17 · FK Atmosfera 1.5), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Garliava vs FK Atmosfera?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.