Football · Lithuania 1 Lyga · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FC Hegelmann II

Team pages: FK Neptunas Klaipeda · FC Hegelmann II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

FK Neptunas Klaipeda2.33

FC Hegelmann II1

1X2

67% 19% 14%

FK Neptunas Klaipeda Draw FC Hegelmann II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWLWL

FC Hegelmann II 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWLWLL

Head-to-head

FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–1 FC Hegelmann II (5 last)

FC Hegelmann II2-3FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FC Hegelmann II0-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda2-0FC Hegelmann II
FC Hegelmann II2-1FK Neptunas Klaipeda
FK Neptunas Klaipeda5-0FC Hegelmann II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 1535 · FC Hegelmann II 1401

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	Draw	FC Hegelmann II
Our model	66%	20%	14%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda (rating 1535 vs 1401).
H2H favours FK Neptunas Klaipeda: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FC Hegelmann II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:19 +10’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Neptunas Klaipeda 4–0–1 FC Hegelmann II

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	2-3 HT 0-3	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
31/10/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
22/06/25 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Hegelmann II
03/11/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FC Hegelmann II	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Neptunas Klaipeda
14/06/24 Lithuania 1 Lyga	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Hegelmann II

Standings · Lithuania 1 Lyga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Minija	25	22	1	2	68	13	67
2	FK Babrungas	25	19	4	2	43	11	61
3	FK BE1	24	16	2	6	43	25	50
4	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	25	14	2	9	33	30	44
5	BFA Vilnius	25	13	4	8	39	35	43
6	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	25	13	4	8	38	32	43
7	FK Tauras	25	13	4	8	43	31	43
8	DFK Dainava	25	11	7	7	35	25	40
9	FK Atmosfera	24	8	6	10	37	33	30
10	FK Garliava	25	8	4	13	31	28	28
11	Lietava Jonava	25	7	6	12	28	33	27
12	FK Kauno Zalgiris II	25	7	1	17	23	43	22
13	FK Transinvest II	25	6	3	16	29	58	21
14	FC Hegelmann II	25	6	1	18	27	58	19
15	FK Siauliai II	25	4	5	16	27	56	17
16	FK Ekranas	25	4	2	19	25	58	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Neptunas Klaipeda	FC Hegelmann II
FK Minija	1-2 L	0-4 L
FK Zalgiris Vilnius II	0-1 L	0-2 L
FK Atmosfera	3-1 W	1-4 L
FK Siauliai II	2-1 W	5-1 W
FK Transinvest II	2-2 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Neptunas Klaipeda (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Neptunas Klaipeda

DWWWLLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
11/09	Lietava Jonava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	6	0	W
07/09	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
29/08	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
22/08	BFA Vilnius Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-2	10	5	L
15/08	FK Babrungas Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
08/08	FK Tauras Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	2-0	2	9	W
01/08	FK Garliava Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
25/07	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/07	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	3	D

FC Hegelmann II

LLLLLWLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	DFK Dainava Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-1	14	3	L
11/09	FK Transinvest II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-3	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	FK Siauliai II Lithuania 1 Lyga	4-1	5-1	6	2	W
29/08	FK Kauno Zalgiris II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-0	0-3	5	3	L
21/08	FK Ekranas Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	3-2	10	2	W
14/08	FK BE1 Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
31/07	FK Minija Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
25/07	FK Atmosfera Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	1-4	2	6	L
21/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
02/07	FK Zalgiris Vilnius II Lithuania 1 Lyga	1-1	1-3	11	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FC Hegelmann II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Neptunas Klaipeda win (67%). Probabilities: FK Neptunas Klaipeda 67%, draw 19%, FC Hegelmann II 14%.

How many goals are expected in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model expects 3.33 goals (FK Neptunas Klaipeda 2.33 · FC Hegelmann II 1), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Neptunas Klaipeda vs FC Hegelmann II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.