Football · Colombia Primera B · 07/10, 23:00

Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Barranquilla FC

Team pages: Itagui Leones · Barranquilla FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Itagui Leones1.51

Barranquilla FC0.96

1X2

49% 28% 23%

Itagui Leones Draw Barranquilla FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Itagui Leones 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLLDLL

Barranquilla FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Itagui Leones 2–2–2 Barranquilla FC (6 last)

Barranquilla FC3-0Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones2-2Barranquilla FC
Barranquilla FC2-3Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones1-2Barranquilla FC
Barranquilla FC2-2Itagui Leones
Itagui Leones2-0Barranquilla FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1441 · Barranquilla FC 1458

	Itagui Leones	Draw	Barranquilla FC
Our model	49%	28%	23%
Market	50%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Itagui Leones	Barranquilla FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.6	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.7	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:12 +4’	1.85	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 2–2–2 Barranquilla FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
25/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Itagui Leones
05/08/25 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	2-2 HT 1-0	Barranquilla FC
24/02/25 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Itagui Leones
11/10/24 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	1-2 HT 0-1	Barranquilla FC
16/02/24 Colombia Primera B	Barranquilla FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Itagui Leones
26/09/23 Colombia Primera B	Itagui Leones	2-0 HT 2-0	Barranquilla FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	11	7	2	2	19	10	23
2	Independiente Valle del Cauca	11	7	2	2	15	6	23
3	Tigres FC	11	6	3	2	13	4	21
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	10	5	2	3	17	13	17
5	Patriotas FC	11	5	2	4	17	17	17
6	Real Cartagena	11	4	3	4	19	14	15
7	Atletico Cali FC	11	4	2	5	13	17	14
8	Internacional FC de Palmira	11	4	2	5	8	12	14
9	Deportes Quindio	10	3	4	3	8	8	13
10	Real San Andres	11	2	6	3	13	18	12
11	Envigado FC	10	2	5	3	9	8	11
12	Union Magdalena	10	3	2	5	9	11	11
13	Bogota FC	10	3	2	5	6	10	11
14	Orsomarso	10	2	4	4	7	10	10
15	Itagui Leones	10	2	3	5	7	16	9
16	Barranquilla FC	10	2	2	6	10	16	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Itagui Leones	Barranquilla FC
Internacional FC de Palmira	0-1 L	0-1 L
Boca Juniors De Cali	1-2 L	2-1 W
Atletico Cali FC	0-3 L	2-2 D
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-1 D	0-1 L
Bogota FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Itagui Leones

WDWDLLLDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
19/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
04/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-3	12	9	L
28/08	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
25/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-4	1-6	9	5	L
21/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
06/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
04/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
25/07	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W

Barranquilla FC

LDDLWWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
21/09	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
16/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
11/09	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
06/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/09	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	7	7	W
25/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
20/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	13	5	D
27/07	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Barranquilla FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Itagui Leones win (49%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 49%, draw 28%, Barranquilla FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Barranquilla FC?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Itagui Leones 1.51 · Barranquilla FC 0.96), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Barranquilla FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.