Football · Colombia Primera B · 16/10, 00:15
Prediction: Itagui Leones vs Patriotas FC
Team pages: Itagui Leones · Patriotas FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Itagui Leones1.2
Patriotas FC1.19
1X2
Itagui Leones
Draw
Patriotas FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Itagui Leones
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Patriotas FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Itagui Leones
1–1–4
Patriotas FC
(6 last)
- Patriotas FC1-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones0-1Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC3-1Itagui Leones
- Patriotas FC1-3Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones0-0Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC2-1Itagui Leones
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Itagui Leones 1434 · Patriotas FC 1496
| Itagui Leones | Draw | Patriotas FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patriotas FC (rating 1434 vs 1496).
- H2H favours Patriotas FC: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Itagui Leones | Patriotas FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/10/80% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Itagui Leones 1–1–4 Patriotas FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 21/09/25 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 12/04/25 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 19/08/23 Colombia Primera B | Patriotas FC | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Itagui Leones |
| 07/03/23 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 04/11/18 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Itagui Leones |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Valle del Cauca | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 24 |
| 2 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 23 |
| 3 | Tigres FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 18 |
| 5 | Patriotas FC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 6 | Real Cartagena | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 16 |
| 8 | Atletico Cali FC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
| 9 | Real San Andres | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 15 |
| 11 | Envigado FC | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 12 | Union Magdalena | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 13 | Bogota FC | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | Barranquilla FC | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Itagui Leones | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 11 |
| 16 | Orsomarso | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Itagui Leones | Patriotas FC |
|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Barranquilla FC | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Boca Juniors De Cali | 1-2 L | 1-4 L |
| Atletico Cali FC | 0-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Bogota FC | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Itagui Leones (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Itagui Leones
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 07/10 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 28/09 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/09 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 12 | 9 | L |
| 28/08 | Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-4 | 1-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 06/08 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Patriotas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/10 | Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B |
0-3 | 1-4 | 11 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 14/09 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 11/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Itagui Leones vs Patriotas FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Itagui Leones win (36%). Probabilities: Itagui Leones 36%, draw 29%, Patriotas FC 35%.
How many goals are expected in Itagui Leones vs Patriotas FC?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Itagui Leones 1.2 · Patriotas FC 1.19), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Itagui Leones vs Patriotas FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.