Football · Colombia Primera B · 16/10, 01:00

Prediction: Internacional FC de Palmira vs Orsomarso

Team pages: Internacional FC de Palmira · Orsomarso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Internacional FC de Palmira1.15

Orsomarso0.77

1X2

45% 31% 24%

Internacional FC de Palmira Draw Orsomarso

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Internacional FC de Palmira 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWWLD

Orsomarso 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWLLLDLDL

Head-to-head

Internacional FC de Palmira 2–4–0 Orsomarso (6 last)

Orsomarso1-2Internacional FC de Palmira
Orsomarso0-0Internacional FC de Palmira
Internacional FC de Palmira1-1Orsomarso
Internacional FC de Palmira1-1Orsomarso
Orsomarso0-2Internacional FC de Palmira
Internacional FC de Palmira0-0Orsomarso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Internacional FC de Palmira 1510 · Orsomarso 1438

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Draw	Orsomarso
Our model	43%	33%	23%
Market	45%	29%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional FC de Palmira (rating 1510 vs 1438).
H2H favours Internacional FC de Palmira: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Internacional FC de Palmira	Orsomarso
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 2.00▲	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	4.33 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +17’	1.80	3.25	4.33
23:01 +7’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Internacional FC de Palmira 2–4–0 Orsomarso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-2 HT 0-1	Internacional FC de Palmira
14/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional FC de Palmira
07/09/25 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	1-1 HT 0-0	Orsomarso
04/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	1-1 HT 0-0	Orsomarso
29/03/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	0-2 HT 0-0	Internacional FC de Palmira
05/09/24 Colombia Primera B	Internacional FC de Palmira	0-0 HT 0-0	Orsomarso

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	12	7	3	2	16	7	24
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	12	7	2	3	19	11	23
3	Tigres FC	12	6	4	2	14	5	22
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
5	Patriotas FC	12	5	3	4	17	17	18
6	Real Cartagena	12	4	4	4	21	16	16
7	Deportes Quindio	12	4	4	4	10	12	16
8	Atletico Cali FC	12	4	3	5	15	19	15
9	Real San Andres	12	3	6	3	14	18	15
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	12	4	3	5	9	13	15
11	Envigado FC	12	2	7	3	13	12	13
12	Union Magdalena	12	3	4	5	12	14	13
13	Bogota FC	12	3	4	5	9	13	13
14	Barranquilla FC	12	3	3	6	15	18	12
15	Itagui Leones	12	2	5	5	10	19	11
16	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7	11	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Internacional FC de Palmira	Orsomarso
Envigado FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Tigres FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Independiente Valle del Cauca	1-0 W	3-4 L
Real Cartagena	2-1 W	0-1 L
Atletico Cali FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	0-2 L	2-0 W
Real San Andres	1-3 L	0-0 D
Deportes Quindio	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Internacional FC de Palmira (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Internacional FC de Palmira

DWLLLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
04/10	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
28/09	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
13/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
09/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
04/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-3	2	4	L
25/08	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
08/08	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D

Orsomarso

DDWLLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
01/10	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
28/09	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-1	3-4	5	6	L
22/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
15/09	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
11/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
05/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	12	9	L
25/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
20/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
01/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Orsomarso?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Internacional FC de Palmira win (45%). Probabilities: Internacional FC de Palmira 45%, draw 31%, Orsomarso 24%.

How many goals are expected in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Orsomarso?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Internacional FC de Palmira 1.15 · Orsomarso 0.77), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Internacional FC de Palmira vs Orsomarso?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.