Football · Colombia Primera B · 16/10, 03:00

Prediction: Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena

Team pages: Deportes Quindio · Real Cartagena

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Deportes Quindio1.17

Real Cartagena1.13

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Deportes Quindio Draw Real Cartagena

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Quindio 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLLWWL

Real Cartagena 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDDLD

Head-to-head

Deportes Quindio 1–1–4 Real Cartagena (6 last)

Real Cartagena2-1Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio0-0Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena4-1Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio2-1Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena3-0Deportes Quindio
Real Cartagena2-0Deportes Quindio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Quindio 1496 · Real Cartagena 1495

	Deportes Quindio	Draw	Real Cartagena
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Cartagena: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Quindio	Real Cartagena
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	5.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +20’	2.45	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Quindio 1–1–4 Real Cartagena

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-1 HT 1-1	Deportes Quindio
27/10/25 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
19/05/25 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	4-1 HT 3-1	Deportes Quindio
13/11/24 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	2-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena
10/11/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	3-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Quindio
03/09/24 Colombia Primera B	Real Cartagena	2-0 HT 2-0	Deportes Quindio

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Valle del Cauca	12	7	3	2	16	7	24
2	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	12	7	2	3	19	11	23
3	Tigres FC	12	6	4	2	14	5	22
4	Boca Juniors De Cali	11	5	3	3	18	14	18
5	Patriotas FC	12	5	3	4	17	17	18
6	Real Cartagena	12	4	4	4	21	16	16
7	Deportes Quindio	12	4	4	4	10	12	16
8	Atletico Cali FC	12	4	3	5	15	19	15
9	Real San Andres	12	3	6	3	14	18	15
10	Internacional FC de Palmira	12	4	3	5	9	13	15
11	Envigado FC	12	2	7	3	13	12	13
12	Union Magdalena	12	3	4	5	12	14	13
13	Bogota FC	12	3	4	5	9	13	13
14	Barranquilla FC	12	3	3	6	15	18	12
15	Itagui Leones	12	2	5	5	10	19	11
16	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7	11	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Quindio	Real Cartagena
Orsomarso	1-0 W	1-0 W
Bogota FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Union Magdalena	2-0 W	1-1 D
Envigado FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Internacional FC de Palmira	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Quindio (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Quindio

DWWDDLLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
06/10	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/09	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
22/09	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-2	1-3	7	7	L
14/09	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	11	9	L
09/09	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
06/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D

Real Cartagena

LWWLWLDDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
04/10	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/09	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
13/09	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
30/08	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	9	4	L
25/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	4-1	6-1	3	5	W
21/08	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	5	10	W
07/08	Independiente Valle del Cauca Colombia Primera B	0-2	0-2	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Quindio win (36%). Probabilities: Deportes Quindio 36%, draw 30%, Real Cartagena 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Deportes Quindio 1.17 · Real Cartagena 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Quindio vs Real Cartagena?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.