Football · Poland III Liga · 14/10, 12:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan II vs Wda Swiecie

Team pages: Lech Poznan II · Wda Swiecie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Lech Poznan II2.08

Wda Swiecie1.41

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Lech Poznan II Draw Wda Swiecie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWLDWDW

Wda Swiecie 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan II 5–1–0 Wda Swiecie (6 last)

Wda Swiecie2-3Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II6-0Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie1-1Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II1-0Wda Swiecie
Lech Poznan II3-0Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie0-5Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan II 1549 · Wda Swiecie 1494

	Lech Poznan II	Draw	Wda Swiecie
Our model	52%	23%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan II (rating 1549 vs 1494).
H2H favours Lech Poznan II: 5-1-0.
High corners: 15.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan II	Wda Swiecie
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 7.8	4.8 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +24’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan II 5–1–0 Wda Swiecie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-3 HT 0-1	Lech Poznan II
21/09/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	6-0 HT 2-0	Wda Swiecie
15/03/25 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	1-1 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan II
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-0 HT 0-0	Wda Swiecie
29/05/19 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	3-0	Wda Swiecie
03/11/18 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	0-5 HT 0-3	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	12	9	3	0	20	6	30
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	12	6	5	1	21	9	23
3	Naprzod Jedrzejow	12	7	2	3	28	21	23
4	Wisloka Debica	12	7	2	3	16	13	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	12	6	2	4	19	12	20
6	Czarni Polaniec	12	6	2	4	18	17	20
7	JKS Jaroslaw	12	5	2	5	28	22	17
8	Hetman Zamosc	12	4	5	3	21	20	17
9	Wisla Krakow II	12	4	4	4	15	17	16
10	Korona Kielce II	12	4	2	6	27	27	14
11	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	12	4	2	6	15	19	14
12	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	12	4	2	6	17	26	14
13	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	12	2	7	3	12	13	13
14	Wieczysta Krakow II	12	3	3	6	11	15	12
15	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	12	3	3	6	10	17	12
16	Star Starachowice	12	2	5	5	14	19	11
17	Moravia Morawica	12	2	3	7	13	22	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	12	2	2	8	12	22	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan II	Wda Swiecie
KKS 1925 Kalisz	4-2 W	1-1 D
Elana Torun	0-0 D	2-1 W
Notec Czarnkow	2-1 W	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	1-1 D	1-0 W
Grom Nowy Staw	2-4 L	4-2 W
Gedania Gdansk	3-2 W	1-1 D
Lipno Steszew	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Wda Swiecie (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan II

WDLWWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	10	2	W
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	–	–	L
08/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
01/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	3-1	5-2	–	–	W

Wda Swiecie

WDWWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	7	2	L
03/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	9	5	L
19/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
12/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
04/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	7	W
28/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
23/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan II vs Wda Swiecie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan II win (52%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan II 52%, draw 23%, Wda Swiecie 25%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan II vs Wda Swiecie?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Lech Poznan II 2.08 · Wda Swiecie 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan II vs Wda Swiecie?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.