Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Plock II vs Zabkovia Zabki

Team pages: Wisla Plock II · Zabkovia Zabki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Wisla Plock II1.65

Zabkovia Zabki1.57

1X2

39% 24% 36%

Wisla Plock II Draw Zabkovia Zabki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Plock II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWLWL

Zabkovia Zabki 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Wisla Plock II 1–1–0 Zabkovia Zabki (2 last)

Zabkovia Zabki0-1Wisla Plock II
Wisla Plock II2-2Zabkovia Zabki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Plock II 1501 · Zabkovia Zabki 1535

	Wisla Plock II	Draw	Zabkovia Zabki
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Plock II	Zabkovia Zabki
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	4.7 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:02 +13’	2.25	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Plock II 1–1–0 Zabkovia Zabki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	Zabkovia Zabki	0-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock II
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	2-2 HT 1-2	Zabkovia Zabki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Plock II	Zabkovia Zabki
Warta Sieradz	1-2 L	4-0 W
CK Troszyn	2-1 W	1-1 D
Wigry Suwalki	0-1 L	1-1 D
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	2-1 W	2-2 D
LKS Lodz II	2-2 D	3-0 W
Mlawianka Mlawa	5-3 W	3-4 L
LKS Lomza	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Zabkovia Zabki (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wisla Plock II

DLWWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
10/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
03/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
25/09	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
19/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
12/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-2	2	7	D
06/09	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
29/08	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	3-0	5-3	5	7	W
23/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	1-2	3-4	7	3	L
19/08	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	8	10	D

Zabkovia Zabki

DWWLWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	9	5	W
10/10	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-3	3-4	6	5	L
18/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	10	6	W
11/09	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	6	W
05/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
29/08	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
22/08	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	12	2	W
19/08	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Plock II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Plock II win (39%). Probabilities: Wisla Plock II 39%, draw 24%, Zabkovia Zabki 36%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Plock II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Wisla Plock II 1.65 · Zabkovia Zabki 1.57), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Plock II vs Zabkovia Zabki?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.