Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: Baltyk Koszalin vs Elana Torun

Team pages: Baltyk Koszalin · Elana Torun

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Baltyk Koszalin1.49

Elana Torun1.51

1X2

37% 26% 38%

Baltyk Koszalin Draw Elana Torun

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Baltyk Koszalin 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLWWDW

Elana Torun 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWWW

Head-to-head

Baltyk Koszalin 0–3 Elana Torun (3 last)

Elana Torun5-2Baltyk Koszalin
Baltyk Koszalin0-1Elana Torun
Baltyk Koszalin1-4Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Baltyk Koszalin 1544 · Elana Torun 1487

	Baltyk Koszalin	Draw	Elana Torun
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Baltyk Koszalin (rating 1544 vs 1487).
H2H favours Elana Torun: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Baltyk Koszalin	Elana Torun
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 6.2	1.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
11:20 +54’	2.40	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Baltyk Koszalin 0–0–3 Elana Torun

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/11/21 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	5-2 HT 2-0	Baltyk Koszalin
07/08/21 Poland III Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	0-1 HT 0-1	Elana Torun
31/10/20 Poland III Liga	Baltyk Koszalin	1-4 HT 1-1	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Baltyk Koszalin	Elana Torun
Notec Czarnkow	3-0 W	1-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	1-1 D	2-3 L
KKS 1925 Kalisz	1-1 D	1-5 L
KSS Kotwica Kornik	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Baltyk Koszalin (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Baltyk Koszalin

WDWDLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	9	8	D
03/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	2	10	W
26/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	8	1	W
19/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
05/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
29/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Elana Torun

LLLLLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
09/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
03/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	4	7	W
26/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
12/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
04/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
29/08	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
19/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Baltyk Koszalin vs Elana Torun?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elana Torun win (38%). Probabilities: Baltyk Koszalin 37%, draw 26%, Elana Torun 38%.

How many goals are expected in Baltyk Koszalin vs Elana Torun?

The model expects 3 goals (Baltyk Koszalin 1.49 · Elana Torun 1.51), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Baltyk Koszalin vs Elana Torun?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.