Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: KTS-K Luzino vs Lech Poznan II

Team pages: KTS-K Luzino · Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

KTS-K Luzino2.39

Lech Poznan II1.33

1X2

60% 20% 20%

KTS-K Luzino Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

KTS-K Luzino 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Lech Poznan II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

KTS-K Luzino 2–0 Lech Poznan II (2 last)

Lech Poznan II1-2KTS-K Luzino
KTS-K Luzino4-3Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KTS-K Luzino 1556 · Lech Poznan II 1485

	KTS-K Luzino	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	60%	20%	20%
Market	60%	20%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KTS-K Luzino (rating 1556 vs 1485).
H2H favours KTS-K Luzino: 2-0-0.
High corners: 14.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KTS-K Luzino	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.5	4.7 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.50

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +18’	1.48	4.50	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KTS-K Luzino 2–0–0 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-2 HT 0-0	KTS-K Luzino
15/08/25 Poland III Liga	KTS-K Luzino	4-3 HT 2-1	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KTS-K Luzino	Lech Poznan II
Wda Swiecie	3-0 W	1-4 L
Elana Torun	1-3 L	0-0 D
Notec Czarnkow	2-0 W	2-1 W
Unia Swarzedz	3-1 W	1-1 D
Grom Nowy Staw	5-1 W	2-4 L
Gedania Gdansk	4-0 W	3-2 W
Lipno Steszew	2-1 W	1-0 W
Blekitni Stargard	1-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: KTS-K Luzino (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	13	4	L
10/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
03/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	2	7	L
26/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	8	8	W
19/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	5	W
11/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	5-1	2	0	W
05/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
28/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
23/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Lech Poznan II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
14/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	13	7	L
10/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	10	2	W
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-4	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KTS-K Luzino vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KTS-K Luzino win (60%). Probabilities: KTS-K Luzino 60%, draw 20%, Lech Poznan II 20%.

How many goals are expected in KTS-K Luzino vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 3.72 goals (KTS-K Luzino 2.39 · Lech Poznan II 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KTS-K Luzino vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.