Football · Poland III Liga · 24/10, 11:00

Prediction: Czarni Polaniec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Team pages: Czarni Polaniec · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Czarni Polaniec2.2

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj1.16

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Czarni Polaniec Draw AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Czarni Polaniec 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLDDLD

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Czarni Polaniec 1509 · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1460

	Czarni Polaniec	Draw	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Czarni Polaniec (rating 1509 vs 1460).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Czarni Polaniec	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.8	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +16’	1.48	4.33	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Czarni Polaniec	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj
Hetman Zamosc	0-1 L	2-4 L
KSZO Ostrowiec	1-1 D	0-5 L
Wisla Krakow II	1-1 D	3-0 W
Naprzod Jedrzejow	2-5 L	1-4 L
Moravia Morawica	2-1 W	2-1 W
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3-0 W	1-2 L
Wislanie Jaskowice	1-0 W	2-1 W
Korona Kielce II	4-3 W	1-4 L
Star Starachowice	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Czarni Polaniec (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Czarni Polaniec

LWWWWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
25/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	8	2	D
19/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-4	2-5	–	–	L
13/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	7	8	W
05/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
28/08	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
22/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-0	4-3	4	5	W
19/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	6	L

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

LDLWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	4	4	L
10/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
04/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/08	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Czarni Polaniec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Czarni Polaniec win (60%). Probabilities: Czarni Polaniec 60%, draw 21%, AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 19%.

How many goals are expected in Czarni Polaniec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Czarni Polaniec 2.2 · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Czarni Polaniec vs AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.