Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 10/10, 18:00
Prediction: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
Team pages: AEK Larnaca · Omonia Aradippou
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
AEK Larnaca2.12
Omonia Aradippou0.67
1X2
AEK Larnaca
Draw
Omonia Aradippou
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AEK Larnaca
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Omonia Aradippou
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AEK Larnaca
2–1–3
Omonia Aradippou
(6 last)
- AEK Larnaca0-1Omonia Aradippou
- Omonia Aradippou2-1AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca1-0Omonia Aradippou
- Omonia Aradippou2-0AEK Larnaca
- AEK Larnaca1-0Omonia Aradippou
- AEK Larnaca1-1Omonia Aradippou
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AEK Larnaca 1576 · Omonia Aradippou 1517
| AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Aradippou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEK Larnaca (rating 1576 vs 1517).
- H2H favours Omonia Aradippou: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.4 | 3.1 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AEK Larnaca 2–1–3 Omonia Aradippou
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Europe Friendlies | AEK Larnaca | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Omonia Aradippou |
| 22/02/26 Cyprus Division 1 | Omonia Aradippou | 2-1 HT 0-1 | AEK Larnaca |
| 09/11/25 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Omonia Aradippou |
| 09/03/25 Cyprus Division 1 | Omonia Aradippou | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AEK Larnaca |
| 06/12/24 Cyprus Division 1 | AEK Larnaca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Omonia Aradippou |
| 08/08/24 Europe Friendlies | AEK Larnaca | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Omonia Aradippou |
Standings · Cyprus Division 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | AEL Limassol | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Omonia Nicosia | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Pafos FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Apollon Limassol | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Aradippou | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
| 8 | Aris Limassol | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 9 | Nea Salamis Famagusta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 4 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Nicosia | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | Apoel Nicosia | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | APK Karmotissa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Anorthosis Famagusta | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 14 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AEK Larnaca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 06/05 | Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Omonia Aradippou
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 12/09 | APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 31/08 | Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Ethnikos Achnas Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Akritas Chlorakas Cyprus Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Krasava ENY Ypsonas Cyprus Division 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 11 | D |
| 04/04 | AEL Limassol Cyprus Division 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AEK Larnaca win (70%). Probabilities: AEK Larnaca 70%, draw 20%, Omonia Aradippou 10%.
How many goals are expected in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou?
The model expects 2.79 goals (AEK Larnaca 2.12 · Omonia Aradippou 0.67), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.