Football · Cyprus Division 1 · 17/10, 18:00

Prediction: Pafos FC vs Apoel Nicosia

Team pages: Pafos FC · Apoel Nicosia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Pafos FC1.71

Apoel Nicosia1.16

1X2

49% 27% 25%

Pafos FC Draw Apoel Nicosia

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Pafos FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWDWLW

Apoel Nicosia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLDW

Head-to-head

Pafos FC 3–2–1 Apoel Nicosia (6 last)

Pafos FC2-0Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia3-3Pafos FC
Pafos FC2-0Apoel Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia0-1Pafos FC
Apoel Nicosia1-1Pafos FC
Pafos FC0-1Apoel Nicosia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pafos FC 1548 · Apoel Nicosia 1481

	Pafos FC	Draw	Apoel Nicosia
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pafos FC (rating 1548 vs 1481).
H2H favours Pafos FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pafos FC	Apoel Nicosia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +5’	1.90	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pafos FC 3–2–1 Apoel Nicosia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Apoel Nicosia
26/04/26 Cyprus Division 1	Apoel Nicosia	3-3 HT 2-1	Pafos FC
04/02/26 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Apoel Nicosia
31/08/25 Cyprus Division 1	Apoel Nicosia	0-1 HT 0-1	Pafos FC
12/05/25 Cyprus Division 1	Apoel Nicosia	1-1 HT 0-0	Pafos FC
06/04/25 Cyprus Division 1	Pafos FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Apoel Nicosia

Standings · Cyprus Division 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEL Limassol	5	4	0	1	8	8	12
2	Omonia Nicosia	5	3	2	0	11	2	11
3	Pafos FC	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
4	AEK Larnaca	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
5	Apollon Limassol	5	2	3	0	10	6	9
6	Aris Limassol	5	2	2	1	6	7	8
7	Apoel Nicosia	5	2	1	2	12	8	7
8	Omonia Aradippou	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
9	Omonia 29is Maiou	5	1	2	2	10	9	5
10	Nea Salamis Famagusta	5	1	1	3	9	11	4
11	Olympiakos Nicosia	5	0	4	1	8	9	4
12	APK Karmotissa	5	0	3	2	3	9	3
13	Anorthosis Famagusta	5	1	0	4	4	12	3
14	Krasava ENY Ypsonas	5	0	0	5	3	13	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pafos FC	Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis Famagusta	3-1 W	1-2 L
AEL Limassol	0-2 L	6-0 W
AEK Larnaca	1-0 W	1-3 L
Aris Limassol	2-0 W	0-1 L
Omonia Nicosia	0-2 L	0-3 L
Apollon Limassol	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Pafos FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pafos FC

LLWDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
18/09	AEL Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
13/09	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
07/09	Olympiakos Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
30/08	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 1	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
22/05	Apoel Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	2-0	2-0	5	6	W
16/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
10/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
06/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
03/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-2	1-2	4	7	L

Apoel Nicosia

WLLLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
19/09	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	1-2	2-2	1	5	D
12/09	Anorthosis Famagusta Cyprus Division 1	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
06/09	AEL Limassol Cyprus Division 1	2-0	6-0	3	6	W
29/08	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-2	1-3	5	7	L
22/05	Pafos FC Cyprus Division 1	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
16/05	Omonia Nicosia Cyprus Division 1	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
10/05	Apollon Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
06/05	Aris Limassol Cyprus Division 1	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
03/05	AEK Larnaca Cyprus Division 1	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pafos FC vs Apoel Nicosia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pafos FC win (49%). Probabilities: Pafos FC 49%, draw 27%, Apoel Nicosia 25%.

How many goals are expected in Pafos FC vs Apoel Nicosia?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Pafos FC 1.71 · Apoel Nicosia 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pafos FC vs Apoel Nicosia?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.