Football · Portugal Primeira Liga · 12/10, 21:15

Prediction: Famalicao vs Alverca

Team pages: Famalicao · Alverca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Famalicao1.31

Alverca0.7

1X2

51% 29% 20%

Famalicao Draw Alverca

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Famalicao 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLDDDW

Alverca 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Famalicao 2–1 Alverca (3 last)

Famalicao1-0Alverca
Alverca1-0Famalicao
Alverca1-2Famalicao

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Famalicao 1511 · Alverca 1476

	Famalicao	Draw	Alverca
Our model	50%	31%	19%
Market	52%	27%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Famalicao: 2-0-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Famalicao	Alverca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.7	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 09:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.88 ★
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	4.50 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +4’	1.80	3.40	4.50
04:35 +14’	1.83▲	3.40	4.50
19:21 +6’	1.80▼	3.40	4.50
08:59 +2’	1.83▲	3.30▼	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +302’	1.83	3.29	4.92
12:07 +147’	1.84▲	3.30▲	4.83▼
12:39 +86’	1.88▲	3.30	4.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Famalicao 2–0–1 Alverca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Famalicao	1-0 HT 0-0	Alverca
04/01/26 Portugal Primeira Liga	Alverca	1-0 HT 0-0	Famalicao
20/11/21 Portugal Cup	Alverca	1-2 HT 1-0	Famalicao

Standings · Portugal Primeira Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	21
2	Sporting	8	5	3	0	20	9	18
3	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	16
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	11
6	Gil Vicente	7	3	2	2	6	5	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	11
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8	8	11
9	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	10
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	8	15	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5	8	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Famalicao	Alverca
Nacional	4-0 W	3-1 W
Sporting	1-1 D	1-3 L
Estrela	2-2 D	2-2 D
Santa Clara	0-1 L	1-1 D
Estoril	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Famalicao (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Famalicao

WDWDLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	4-0	3	6	W
13/09	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/09	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
30/08	Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
23/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
16/08	Maritimo Portugal Primeira Liga	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
07/08	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/05	Alverca Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
11/05	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
26/04	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Alverca

LDLLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Rio Ave Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
12/09	Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga	3-0	3-1	0	3	W
05/09	Braga Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Santa Clara Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
22/08	Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/08	Estrela Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
09/08	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-2	0-2	9	4	L
16/05	Famalicao Portugal Primeira Liga	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
10/05	Estoril Portugal Primeira Liga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/05	FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Famalicao vs Alverca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Famalicao win (51%). Probabilities: Famalicao 51%, draw 29%, Alverca 20%.

How many goals are expected in Famalicao vs Alverca?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Famalicao 1.31 · Alverca 0.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Alverca?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.